Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1433-1490 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bullish/neutral – A move above 1338 should put things favoring short term upside.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1333-1344 and 2nd tier 1353-1363
Initial Support 1310-1320 and 2nd tier 1280-1290
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market ranged down early today but managed to reject a noted portion of the initial slide before mid session. However, gold was partially undermined by adverse currency market action, weakness in industrial commodity prices and also because of the ever present overhang of Fed tapering fears. The bear camp remains confident in the prospect of lower gold prices ahead, as US home price data this morning served to keep the subject of US tapering alive and for some that has primarily fostered the slide down toward the $1,300 level.
Gold overview
The gold option expiration tomorrow is most likely taking center stage more than the no tapering announcement by the Fed. Both gold and silver have given up all their gains since that Fed decision to continue its massive QE operations. As we’ve seen, QE has not helped the price of gold over the past two years. Thus the most likely scenario we are seeing in gold is the options expiration and that should be out of the way after Wednesday.
The flash crash has become the cartel's preferred method of controlling gold on a daily basis. It's more cost efficient, requires less effort, and sends a lasting message to all spec longs. All it takes is a rogue algo at 2 or 3 key moments and MOPE is achieved. Of course any legitimate regulatory agency would have long ago put a stop to this illegal trading but when you are TBTF you have (literally) a lifetime gold pass. Today's 3 key moments.
3:12 AM: 774 shorts
5:07 AM: 2,080 shorts
8:58 - 9:00 AM: 4,851 shorts
Those 5 trading minutes accounted for $15 of gold's drop. Clearly the rest of the day now amounts to little more than watching paint dry. It's astounding how repetitious daily trading charts have become. For the past 10 hours from 3:00 AM to 1:00 PM virtually the identical algo program has been running as the day before. This is absurdly impossible in a freely traded market.
The Fed continues with its taper/no taper bounce back between the Fed officials pointing to a scenario that perhaps instead of being in control of direction, they in fact have no idea what they are doing.
The WSJ reported that China's best-known credit-ratings firm, Dagong Global Credit Rating Co, is raising red flags over climbing local-government debt. The article said the firm broke ranks with its local competitors and downgraded three bonds issued by infrastructure-construction companies wholly owned by Chinese cities at the end of June, saying it was losing faith in the governments' backing of the bonds. It added that Dagong's actions are rare for Chinese rating firms which typically assume that the government development firms they rate have ironclad state backing.
Right now we’re watching the 1272 and 1322 area as key price points of weekly and monthly support. The August low was 1271 and going below that point and closing below it on a weekly basis would add additional concern as to whether the gold market is ready just yet.
A weekly close below 1322 this week would keep things with the bears in charge. We’ll find out on Wednesday if the options have been what is holding gold down during this time frame. If that’s the case, it should release gold at some time on Wednesday.
Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short term hourly chart
Like a broken record ---gold broke below 1322 yet was unable to close below it. Today we spent most of the day below it again but were saved by the bell in New York with a 1323 close.
The direction for the next two weeks is about to play out---one way or another. Any move above 1338 at this point should tilt the odds in favor of the bears on the very short term. We’re on the edge of the green 200 hour moving average and if we can break above it and conquer 1338, then the odds will favor that the options expiration drawdown is complete.
Closes below 1310 keeps the downside open for more but it would take a move below 1290 to but the short term cycles in trouble going into October.
Resistance on Wednesday is 1333-1343 but if the short term cycle kicks in and it confirms as an up one, then look for 1350-1360 going into Wednesday/Thursday. Support is 1307-1310 and then 1280 on the downside. It looks as though support is still at that lower dotted line and if we can get above 1338, it should favor a move towards 1353 in gold.
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1. Open your account HERE
2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
Moneybookers
Paypal
You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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