Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1433-1490 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bullish/neutral – need a close below 1300-1322---but that is certainly possible going into this week.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1333-1344 and 2nd tier 1353-1363
Initial Support 1310-1320 and 2nd tier 1280-1290
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market managed to bounce off the overnight dip on the charts and return to waffle around the vicinity of unchanged levels today. Providing some lift to gold is talk of an impending default by the US, a government shut down by the US and perhaps even from talk of a suspect US economy as that in turn might have served to push back the revival of Fed tapering fears. On the other hand, the bear camp in gold at times today tried to fan the talk of an October tapering start from the Fed's Bullard and that highlights the diverse views of the US Fed's intentions.Goldtrends questions whether a government shut would be good for gold? It doesn’t sound inflationary, in fact the opposite.
Gold overview
There are many firms that view the COT reports and insider Capital still views the COT positioning as a bearish outcome and favors the downside will regain the edge in the coming months. If the global recovery falters and Europe’s debt crisis (as well as the USA’s budget woe’s) continue they could end up being correct.
We are well aware of the physical side of the story but gold has yet to react in a major way. While there is still a major upside wave left in gold so far the medium term has not yet flipped bullish. The current medium term cycle is arriving at a turn point. The big question is that the June 21st medium term cycle produced a low (June 28th) and the current cycle of Sept 23rd (plus or minus 2.5 weeks) is coming into a low point. The August 28th high was over three weeks from the date and that is a little outside the window we usually see. The window is a standard deviation of time and it is important to remember there are always turns that are a bit before or after. Thus it is still possible that this pullback is setting up for a move higher into year end. For the moment however, we do have to remain open minded that the potential for another low in gold cannot yet be dismissed. Gold is going to have its “time” but there are still a lot of conflicting evidence that the “time” has come.
The July/August rally was strong, but the timing of the event leaves it questionable as to whether the low has yet been witnessed in this downtrend. The fact that gold was not able to get back in the uptrend channel on the hourly chart and the depth of the pullback since the end of August has been strong. Right now we’re watching the 1272 and 1322 area as key price points of weekly and monthly support. The August low was 1271 and going below that point and closing below it on a weekly basis would add additional concern as to whether the gold market is ready just yet.
The concern is on many fronts as there are still deflationary scenario’s blowing in the wind. The banking crisis where the SHORTAGE OF HIGH COLATERAL debt remains the major concern because what most don’t realize is that all the FEDS printing are going to BANK RESERVES and that money is not money that is available to be BORROWED. So in its true form those who point out that all the FED is doing is holding up the banks are absolutely correct. That is a high point of consideration. In summary, we still should get a bounce into early October but the question is will it continue after that? And even that scenario of a bounce into October is still not on solid footing. A weekly close below 1322 this week would keep things with the bears in charge. Gold needs to get back above 1385 to be on solid footing. For now, let’s see if it can get back above 1355-1360 for starters.
Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots and the same for S1 and S2.
The R1 and R2 daily at 1334 and 1342 are the next resistance points going into Tuesday that match up pretty close to the hourly chart.
Gold Short term hourly chart
Once again gold broke below 1322 yet was unable to close below it. The direction for the next two weeks is about to play out---one way or another. We were expecting 1322 to hold this time but gold chose the 1310 support instead, coming in at 1313.40 as the low basis December gold. It’s obvious we’re in a downtrend channel since the August high and that FOMC high right at the uptrend channel and subsequent turn down from there at the moment still has the bears at a slight advantage. If Tuesday can move above the green 200 hour moving average and then close above 1353 it would set up for a key resistance test of the upper dotted trend line near 1360 and or the blue channel line at 1385.
With this type of volatility it’s best to sit back until we get some type of trend going again. This is all over the place covering the entire down trend channel from bottom to top and back to bottom in just three days. Closes below 1310 keeps the downside open for more but it would take a move below 1290 to but the short term cycles in trouble going into October.
Resistance on Tuesday is 1333-1343 but if the short term cycle kicks in and it confirms as an up one, then look for 1350-1360 going into Wednesday/Thursday. Support is 1307-1310 and then 1280 on the downside. It looks as though support was formed on Monday at that lower line and if we can get above 1336, it should favor a move towards 1353 in gold.
What's Next?
All that is going on in Washington on the budget debate could become the talk of this week. Last week certainly made the short term look on the charts that cycles or not, things can remain very volatile this week. Watch 1310-1322 as potential support again on Tuesday. Below that would not be technically bullish for short term gold.
It almost looks as if gold wants to climb higher into Wednesday.
All that is going on in Washington on the budget debate could become the talk of this week. Last week certainly made the short term look on the charts that cycles or not, things can remain very volatile this week. Watch 1310-1322 as potential support again on Tuesday. Below that would not be technically bullish for short term gold.
It almost looks as if gold wants to climb higher into Wednesday.
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TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
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I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
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