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Sunday, September 22, 2013

Gold Trend Sep 23/2013



Long Term ~ Neutral
 - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1433-1490 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish –we closed below 1320-1325 in NY but not access. Need close above 1375 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Bullish/neutral – need a close below 1300-1322---but that is certainly possible going into this week. Short term cycles are due to turn up but medium term cycles and the budget debate in Washington is heating up strongly.

Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1333-1344 and 2nd tier 1353-163
Initial Support 1310-1320 and 2nd tier 1280-1290

CME GROUP NEWS
December gold saw a series of stair steps down moves today with the low to high recovery bounces this morning amounting to roughly $7 to $10 an ounce. However, gold was apparently content to work lower on the charts as the euphoria from the Fed seemed to come out of play fairly quickly and some end of week profit taking might have been taking control over the trade. It is also possible that some gold bulls were undermined by the Fed's Bullard who indicated that the decision not to taper was a close call, as that in turn might have rekindled fears of an October tapering potential. Many traders aren't going to embrace the tapering subject easily after the Fed laid out the need for further improvement in the unemployment situation and also indicated that to taper would require getting beyond the Congressional debt battle in October without damage to the US economy. Some players think getting beyond the debt battle quickly is highly unlikely.

Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots and the same for S1 and S2.


Gold Short term hourly chart
Gold rallied back to the bottom of the previous channel but as we discussed on the last update, the key was to get back above that channel. The sell off on Friday was huge and we were expecting the 1333-1338 area to hold but it cut thru there like Swiss cheese. The 1310-1322 area is first support on Monday. If we take out 1310 or just a bit lower, the trend will favor lower. At the moment we are very volatile as the weekly commentary explored all the issues going on. If we do hold the 1310 area then a trade range of 1310-1350 could be in store this week. With this type of volatility it’s best to sit back until we get some type of trend going again. This is all over the place covering the entire down trend channel from bottom to top and back to bottom in just three days. Closes below 1310 keeps the downside open for more.


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