Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1387-1440 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ bullish -- resistance 1372-1387
Short Term ~ Bullish – short term high due Nov 3rd – plus or minus 72 hours
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1354-1362 and 2nd tier 1372-1382
Initial Support 1333-1343 and 2nd tier 1319-1327
Last update listed resistance at 1354-1362 and the high was 1360.40.
Support was listed at 1333-1343 and the low was 1339.
CME GROUP NEWS
U.S. Consumers and China Money Market Rates
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short Term
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1387-1440 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ bullish -- resistance 1372-1387
Short Term ~ Bullish – short term high due Nov 3rd – plus or minus 72 hours
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1354-1362 and 2nd tier 1372-1382
Initial Support 1333-1343 and 2nd tier 1319-1327
Last update listed resistance at 1354-1362 and the high was 1360.40.
Support was listed at 1333-1343 and the low was 1339.
CME GROUP NEWS
Gold
showed some vulnerable action on Tuesday as prices failed to reverse a
recent pattern of lower highs and prices also failed to hold above this
week's initial lows. Clearly a much sharper than expected rally in the
Dollar served to shift sentiment in gold away from the recent bull track
as the market's attention was at least temporarily diverted away from
the hope of further US easing. In fact, even with reports of a criminal
investigation into manipulation of the Dollar reportedly behind the
sharp rally in the Greenback, gold and other physical commodity markets
were just not able to discount the negative influence of the currency
market action on gold prices. The gold market did show some minor
recovery action in the wake of soft US conference board readings and
therefore the gold market at times is able to benefit from evidence of
soft US data. Unfortunately the gold market focus has been extremely
fickle over the last two weeks and therefore it could take a
definitively dovish Fed statement to rekindle the bull track that
dominated gold from October 15th to October 28th. With reports of an
increase in gold de-hedging circulating Tuesday afternoon that could
have been responsible for a portion of the October rally but producers
aren't like to implement hedges until prices off a more reasonable
profit margin. Another issue that might be capable of lending support to
gold prices in the weeks ahead is predictions that extreme premiums for
gold inside India might result in a significant jump in smuggled gold
and that in turn could boost demand in neighboring areas like Dubai and
Singapore.
Overview
The U.S. Comex gold futures
retreated 0.52 percent in the past two days ahead of the FOMC meeting
announcement on Wednesday while the Dollar Index rose 0.52 percent. This
week, the S&P 500 Index and the Euro Stoxx 50 Index have risen 0.70
percent and 0.53 percent respectively. During Asian Wednesday morning,
the gold futures traded down about five dollars to $1,340 while the U.S.
10-year government bond yield hovered around 2.50 percent.
Month-to-date, the gold futures rose 1.43 percent although the prices
have dropped close to 20 percent year-to-date.
U.S. Consumers and China Money Market Rates
The
U.S. September retail sales excluding autos rose 0.4 percent compared
to a 0.1 percent increase in August, helped by better electronics sales
and the ongoing housing recovery. The S&P/Shiller Index jumped 12.8
percent year-on-year, the highest percentage gain since February 2006.
However, the October Consumer Confidence Index plunged nine points from
last month to 71.2, reflecting consumers' uncertainty with the budget
talk and the employment outlook. In China, traders watch the continuous
rising seven-day repurchase rate, an indicator of funding conditions,
which has risen to a three-month high of five percent on 29 October.
Tightening financial conditions amidst a rebound in economic growth and
inflation in China unnerves market, driving the Chinese gold price to
close below the London gold fix the first time this year. In India, the
Central Bank raised interest rate a second time to 7.75 percent to
combat a close to ten percent inflation rate.
Investor Flows
As
the Dollar Index has recovered from a nine-month trough on 24 October,
gold prices have correspondingly retreated. Worldwide gold-backed ETF
holdings rose the most in a year on 22 October although the holdings
have fallen about 27 percent over a year ago. Speculators increased
their net long positions by 16 percent to 84,666 contracts for the week
ending 8 October as the U.S. budget talk intensified, with the shorts
positions falling by about 69 percent since the recent peak in early
July. Russia sold 0.37 metric tons of gold in September during the time
when investors redeemed funds massively from emerging markets. Market
does not expect the Fed to alter its QE positions on Wednesday and will
monitor the press announcement closely. (Overview taken from
Sharps-Pixley).
Gold Pivot pointsR1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short Term
Gold
reached the upper end of the 1st weekly target of 1357-1362 with a
1361.80 high and it still has potential to reach the 2nd target of
1372-1387. Gold pulled back yesterday but was only able to reach
1339.80 in Dec gold. I was hoping we’d see 1322 but not so far.
Since that low yesterday gold has not been able to climb back above the purple line yet. That pegs minor resistance at 1353 – 1357 and then minor resistance at 1362-1366. Key resistance is 1372-1387.
1st minor Support is now 1330-1336 on a daily basis and weekly at 1303-1310. The 1322 price could also be considered support but there is not trend line there on the chart at the moment.
Everyone is expecting no taper and they are probably correct on that assumption. However, it doesn’t mean the control boyz can’t take gold down. It’s possible that gold could begin a pullback after the FOMC announcement. Perhaps it reaches 1372-1387 first. The problem now is that the short term cycle is coming due and its scheduled for a 2 week pullback into mid November and that makes trading on the long side quite risky. Prices will most likely remain choppy until the FOMC announcement.
Since that low yesterday gold has not been able to climb back above the purple line yet. That pegs minor resistance at 1353 – 1357 and then minor resistance at 1362-1366. Key resistance is 1372-1387.
1st minor Support is now 1330-1336 on a daily basis and weekly at 1303-1310. The 1322 price could also be considered support but there is not trend line there on the chart at the moment.
Everyone is expecting no taper and they are probably correct on that assumption. However, it doesn’t mean the control boyz can’t take gold down. It’s possible that gold could begin a pullback after the FOMC announcement. Perhaps it reaches 1372-1387 first. The problem now is that the short term cycle is coming due and its scheduled for a 2 week pullback into mid November and that makes trading on the long side quite risky. Prices will most likely remain choppy until the FOMC announcement.
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1. Open your account HERE
2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
