Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1387-1440 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ bullish -- resistance 1372-1387
Short Term ~ Bullish – short term high due Nov 3rd – plus or minus 72 hours
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1354-1362 and 2nd tier 1372-1382
Initial Support 1333-1343 and 2nd tier 1319-1327
Last update listed resistance at 1354-1362 and the high was 1359.40.
Support was listed at 1333-1343 and the low was 1334.50.
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market was held higher throughout the US trading session off what appears to have been hope for a distinctly supportive US Fed. However, in the wake of the Fed statement, gold prices came under pressure and fells back into lower levels for the day. In fact, December gold initially fell back below the 50 day moving average and fell below the prior 3 session's lows. In short, the gold trade must have been hoping for some sort of fresh easing promise from the Fed or perhaps some acknowledgment that the Fed would respond if indeed the US government shutdown wounded the US economy seriously. However, with US initial claims data to be released on Thursday the impact of the US government shut down might begin to fade into the background.
Overview
Gold slipped on Thursday despite the U.S. Federal Reserve vowing to maintain its economic stimulus measures, with investors taking profits from a recent run-up in prices.
The metal had risen about 8 percent since hitting a three-month low on October 15 in anticipation of the Fed's decision, leading to a price correction on Wednesday after a statement from the bank came in line with expectations.
Gold was also hurt by a sharp slide in silver due to technical selling and strength in the U.S. dollar.
Gold Pivot points
R1 and R2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for resistance and the S1 and S2 represent 1st and 2nd standard deviations from the pivots for support.
Gold Short Term
As discussed on the last update, no taper doesn’t mean the control boyz can’t take the price down. Gold hit our support of 1330-1336 yesterday with a 1334.50 low.
Gold reached the upper end of the 1st weekly target of 1357-1362 with a 1361.80 high and it has dropped on Thursday to the 1330 area. We had favored the 2nd target of 1372-1387 over the 1st target, but odds have significantly diminished here on Thursday morning. It’s the LAST DAY OF THE MONTH and as I’ve mentioned many times, the last day can have wide price ranges. Because its month END --- 1322 is activated as a support point for today (last trade day of month) and tomorrow (first trade day of the month. There’s a white line on the chart from the Oct 15th low that is pointing to that 1322 area. However the SLOPE of the channel is different than the others and there is NO VALIDATION at this time of that line becoming support until such time that price holds on it. Otherwise don’t favor it as any support. We’ve penetrated the 1334 support line but not quite deep enough for gold to lose that level but its very close. If it lets go then the 1320-1322 area and the weekly support at 1305-1310 are the next two key levels to watch.
In summary there are many things we can say is causing gold to go down today. My own personal opinion is the last day of the month and the silver test yesterday of the medium term moving averages has an impact. If we close below 1322 today (last day of month) and Friday (1st day of month) it would not be good thing technically and would take the short term out of bullish mode. With it being the last day, we might just get a test of 1322--- and who knows, perhaps a bit more. The 1322-1328 are is key today. It is possible for it to hold there and rally towards 1372 into mid next week, but a close below 1328 and 1322 would have to favor the bears. In summary, the trend is still up, but we need to be aware that short term cycles are due to peak between now and next Wednesday.
What's Next?
The FOMC results mean nothing as the control boys are selling it off. It’s the last day of the month and they can be volatile. The 1322 price number activates today because it’s the last day of the month. Additional support is the 1305-1310 area.
In summary, the short term situation goes neutral on a close below 1322. With short term cycle window for a turn beginning on Friday, its best to be cautious.
Bottom line
Gold is getting hammered on the last day of the month. With that said, watch the US dollar next week to see if it has legs and its best to favor gold has peaked short term if we close below 1322.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
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Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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