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Sunday, November 3, 2013

Gold Weekly Nov 04-08, 2013

Monthly
Our major concern on monthly chart is still the same. Whether we will get upward retracement and possible BC leg of larger AB=CD down move or not. October and November candles look not very impressive. While october has shifted to doji right in the end of the month, november candle is too small and looks very shy yet. Currently this action does not look like possible upward reversal and starting point of notable retracement up. Fundamental situation and CFTC data also stand not in favor of possible appreciation. Seasonal trend is still bullish, but it is not always lead to growth. Sometimes, it could just hold depreciation and now we see something of this kind, since market stands in some range since August.
Our previous analysis (recall volatility breakout - VOB) suggests upward retracement. As market has significantly hit oversold we’ve suggested that retracement up should be solid, may be not right to overbought, but still significant. Take a look at previous bounces out from oversold – everytime retracement was significant. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up.
That’s being said, current situation on monthly chart looks mostly as indecision, although theoretical chances for upward continuation still exist. At the same time growing concern of investors about QE tapering and CFTC data in long term perspective could change picture on monthly chart. Currently we do not have clear signs here on definite upward continuation. 

Weekly
Despite that trend holds bullish here, overall picture looks bearish for me by some reasons. First is, take a look – market has shown reversal without any technical reasons, price is not at resistance or overbought. When price stands in upward AB=CD it should not show reversals prior hitting at least minor 0.618 target. But here we see solid downward move right after appearing of potential “C” point of AB=CD pattern. Second – action has taken a shape of bearish engulfing and price has tested MPP. And finally, black candle almost a reversal type of – it has opened above previous close, created new high, new low and closed almost below the open price of previous candle. Based on this chart, possible point of return to bullish sentiment and trend is breakout through 1380 top. Until that will happen, engulfing pattern will hold and situation will remain bearish in short-term. Also, keep in mind guys, that current action easily could shift to Butterfly “buy” as we’ve suggested previously. If this will happen market will be under way to 1115 and 1025 areas.

Daily
As we’ve got a pattern on weekly and a bit unnatural downward reversal (mostly driven by fundamentals), the easy way to act here is to try to stick with pattern. On daily time frame we do not have bullish stop grabber – trend just has shifted bearish and market has reached support area – MPP +50% support level.
To enter short with weekly engulfing pattern we need to sell some rally inside the body of the pattern as soon as it will start.

4-hour
Ok, here is our working swing down. There are two significant resistance levels here – K-level around 1326.5-1329 and WPP+Fib level at 1334-1339. Taking into consideration gold’s habit to make deep retracement, second level of more prefferable. Also take a look that WPR1 stands right above the highs of weekly engulfing pattern.
I do not see any reversal pattern right now here, except this nicely looking doji. On 30-ming chart you probably could find reverse H&S pattern. Some may be rally up will start right from this level, we’ll see. If this will indeed happen, the second step of our plan is understand where retracement could finish and where we should enter short.

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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