Monthly
Our major concern on monthly chart is still the same. Whether we will
get upward retracement and possible BC leg of larger AB=CD down move or
not. October and November candles look not very impressive. While
october has shifted to doji right in the end of the month, november
candle is too small and looks very shy yet. Currently this action does
not look like possible upward reversal and starting point of notable
retracement up. Fundamental situation and CFTC data also stand not in
favor of possible appreciation. Seasonal trend is still bullish, but it
is not always lead to growth. Sometimes, it could just hold depreciation
and now we see something of this kind, since market stands in some
range since August.
Our previous analysis (recall volatility breakout - VOB) suggests upward
retracement. As market has significantly hit oversold we’ve suggested
that retracement up should be solid, may be not right to overbought, but
still significant. Take a look at previous bounces out from oversold –
everytime retracement was significant. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of
possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD,
and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market
will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up.
That’s being said, current situation on monthly chart looks mostly as
indecision, although theoretical chances for upward continuation still
exist. At the same time growing concern of investors about QE tapering
and CFTC data in long term perspective could change picture on monthly
chart. Currently we do not have clear signs here on definite upward
continuation.

Weekly
Despite that trend holds bullish here, overall picture looks bearish for
me by some reasons. First is, take a look – market has shown reversal
without any technical reasons, price is not at resistance or overbought.
When price stands in upward AB=CD it should not show reversals prior
hitting at least minor 0.618 target. But here we see solid downward move
right after appearing of potential “C” point of AB=CD pattern. Second –
action has taken a shape of bearish engulfing and price has tested MPP.
And finally, black candle almost a reversal type of – it has opened
above previous close, created new high, new low and closed almost below
the open price of previous candle. Based on this chart, possible point
of return to bullish sentiment and trend is breakout through 1380 top.
Until that will happen, engulfing pattern will hold and situation will
remain bearish in short-term. Also, keep in mind guys, that current
action easily could shift to Butterfly “buy” as we’ve suggested
previously. If this will happen market will be under way to 1115 and
1025 areas.

Daily
As we’ve got a pattern on weekly and a bit unnatural downward reversal
(mostly driven by fundamentals), the easy way to act here is to try to
stick with pattern. On daily time frame we do not have bullish stop
grabber – trend just has shifted bearish and market has reached support
area – MPP +50% support level.
To enter short with weekly engulfing pattern we need to sell some rally
inside the body of the pattern as soon as it will start.

4-hour
Ok, here is our working swing down. There are two significant
resistance levels here – K-level around 1326.5-1329 and WPP+Fib level at
1334-1339. Taking into consideration gold’s habit to make deep
retracement, second level of more prefferable. Also take a look that
WPR1 stands right above the highs of weekly engulfing pattern.
I do not see any reversal pattern right now here, except this nicely
looking doji. On 30-ming chart you probably could find reverse H&S
pattern. Some may be rally up will start right from this level, we’ll
see. If this will indeed happen, the second step of our plan is
understand where retracement could finish and where we should enter
short.

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If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards