Tuesday, November 12, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 13/2013

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1371-1421 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral -- resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – A cycle turn up due between Thursday and Monday.

Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1282-1292 and 2nd tier 1305-1312
Initial Support 1253-1263 and 2nd tier 1232-1242

Resistance listed in the last update was 1288-1295 and the high was 1286.
Support was listed at 1260-1272 and the low was 1260

Like the rest of the metals markets on Tuesday, gold showed some early interest in the upside only to have those gains reversed and the market turn sellers. From the mid-morning Tuesday high to the lows on Tuesday, December gold saw a setback of more than $20 an ounce. Even in the face of a softer Dollar, gold was unable to garner favor perhaps because of hints from a Fed member that tapering could well begin in December. However, the Fed's Lockhart also suggested that inflation was too low and that inflation would have to climb towards the 2% target for the tapering to begin.

Gold Overview
Gold remains weak on this downtrend and a close below 1258-1259 warns of more potential downside.
Last night we said to watch 1260-1272 for Tuesday on the short term update and support and resistance and the low was 1260. While this could be setting up for the low of this short term cycle any close below 1258-1259 will favor lower to at least the purple trend line just under 1250 with the potential for 1222 if things get out of hand on the downside. Perhaps this is a lead in for Janet Yellen and the hearings on Thursday. That will be the 1st day of the window for the short term low as well. We’re either making the low here, or about to get a strong move towards 1222-1242.

Gold Short Term
The 1st support to watch for is the 1258-1260 on Wednesday and that purple channel line under 1250. This is the same situation we spoke of last night. Thus the 1st target has been met and now if we close below 1258-1259 then 1240-1245 comes in play. The low is 1251 in October. Resistance comes in around 1280-1290 on Wednesday.
In summary, the short term trend remains down but is due to bottom during Thursday thru Monday. The purple line seems to be the most likely target, but there is a chance of holding here at 1260. Let’s see what Wednesday brings.
Gold hourly chart
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