Thursday, November 14, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 14/2013

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1371-1421 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral -- resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – A cycle turn up due between Thursday and Monday.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1286-1298 and 2nd tier 1305-1312
Initial Support 1265-1275 and 2nd tier 1240-1253

Resistance listed in the last update was 1282-1292 and the high was 1283.50. 
Support was listed at 1253-1263 and the low was 1265
Gold Short Term.
The low so far is 1260 and its possible that it was the low. The wild card is the Yellen testimony today. Resistance is the 1288-1298 area and 1305-1312. Support is 1260-1272 and then 1240-1252. On the hourly chart 1268-1272 is a potential support point. The 1260 low comes from support on the daily chart where the lower trendline of the wedge has held support. It’s an important line and the bounce from it was expected. The question is do we retest it? Since the downtrend was strong on the downside we do need to be careful. The window for a cycle turn lasts into next week and there’s nothing to say it can’t be broken on the downside. Odds favor it will depend on what Yellen says. As stated above she will not necessarily speak her real mind but will answer politically. That’s the part that makes it difficult to ascertain how gold will react. A return to the 1268-1275 area should find initial support this morning. Her testimony begins at 10 am NY time.

What's Next?
Gold found support at 1260-1272 as expected and the first bounce has taken place. The question now is whether it was good enough for a turn to develop. If we hold 1265-1272 today odds will increase a potential low is in place.. A close below 1258-1259 will favor there is more downside and next support is 1240-1245. Now it comes down to the Yellen testimony today.
In summary a cycle low may have taken place--- but a close below 1258-1259 favors more downside.
Bottom Line
The wedge line has held so far but it doesn’t mean it can’t get broken. IF it does and then reverses back into the wedge above the lower line on a close, odds will favor the low is in on the short term. Remember, anything can happen with these wedges.
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