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Monthly
Weekly
Daily
1-hour
Monthly
Whether we will get upward retracement and possible BC leg of larger
AB=CD down move or not – that was our question for previous months and
not much has changed here by far. As lows of October holds – chances are
exist that market still could show upward action. While october has
shifted to doji right in the end of the month and November has started
from solid decline – now this fall calms down a bit and who knows, may
be some recovery will happen. Fundamental situation and CFTC data stand
not in favor of possible appreciation, but recent Yellen’s comments
could support market in very short-term perspective. Seasonal trend is
still bullish, but it is not always lead to growth. Sometimes, it could
just hold depreciation and now we see something of this kind, since
market stands in some range since August.
Our previous analysis (recall volatility breakout - VOB) suggests upward
retracement. As market has significantly hit oversold we’ve suggested
that retracement up should be solid, may be not right to overbought, but
still significant. Take a look at previous bounces out from oversold –
everytime retracement was significant. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of
possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD,
and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market
will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up.
Now market is approaching to previous lows and the question is whether they will hold or not.
Weekly
This time frame puts the foundation for short-term trading. As market
has reached the minimum target of bearish engulfing, that was suddenly
formed, now price has opportunity to change direction for short-term and
simultaneously do not break overall bearish development. So, guys, here
we have bullish stop grabber pattern right at MPS1 and Fib support. Its
minimum target stands around 1350 and it could be reached as AB-CD.
Looking a bit further, theoretically it could even lead to butterfly
sell appearing, but this is a bit early object for discussion.
Conversely, invalidation point of grabber stands at its low – 1265 and
if market will destroy it, we will return right back to bearish setup
and butterfly “buy” on weekly that we’ve discussed earlier. Anyway,
short-term development that could follow on coming week and completion
of small AB-CD will not cancel bearish setup yet. From that standpoint
we could say that we will be focused mostly on tactical trading rather
on strategic on this week.
Daily
Trend is bearish here, market is not at oversold. In fact now situation
mostly depends on what will happen with this engulfing pattern, because
this pattern simultaneously is a swing of stop grabber on weekly chart.
Other words, whether it will lead market to real bounce up or it will
fail. The major worry with it is existing of AB=CD minor 0.618 target
slightly under this pattern. Still, as we have pattern, let’s try to use
it and focus particularly on it, and then we’ll see what will happen.
1-hour
On 4-hour chart I see nothing special, except may be existance of
reversal swing up, that is greater than previous swing down. Hourly
chart shows the swing of stop grabber itself. So, since we intend to try
to trade it, there are two significant support areas. First one is
K-support around WPP and second one is combination of WPS1 and 5/8 Fib
support around 1272-1274. Currently is it unclear what particular level
price could reach but both of them are suitable and will not cancel
possible upward action. Although invalidation point of grabber is its
low, we probably also should keep an eye on 1268 low. If it will be
taken out, then chances that grabber will be cancelled increase
significantly.
Gold has a habit to show deep retracements and current top shape blurly
reminds H&S but it looks too skew and hardly worthy of relation on
it.
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3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
