Tuesday, November 19, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 19/2013

Weekly bullish stop grabber is still valid and it does not allow us just to take short position. We need to wait either of its vanishing or it's completion. But currently it is look like former variant is more probable.
On daily time frame we see deep retracement right inside grabber's body and major risk - existing of 0.618 AB-CD target right below the lows. That's why we should not be hurry with taking any long positions with grabber:

Situation on hourly chart forces us to prepare a bit sophisticated analysis. First of all, I do not want to take long position right now, mostly due fast acceleration down to major 5/8 Fib support . In fact market was falling and just hit on current solid support Fib +1.27 extension of AB=CD + WPS1. Acceleration right to 1.27 makes me think that price should reach 1.618 still. The potential butterfly here just confirms this. So, probably if reversal up is still possible, it should start somewhere from 1267-1268 area. Simultaneously this area will be our major indicator. If market will pass through it and stand in the 1261-1266 range, it will significantly increase chances on downward contination. In this case I would take any long positions at all.

Hence, there are two possible ways to act. First is "pain or gain" - if you want to try take position right at the lows. It carries more risk, but gives perfect entry point. In this case attempt is to take poition around 1267. Safer way (is my prefferable one) - wait when (an if) market will turn to upward action and take positon on retracement. Since we have weekly pattern and it is pretty a lot of room till 1370 target, we will have a lot of time to take position and I do not see any reason for rush, especially when probabilities of upward action are melting each hour. Now, in fact, gold stands at the edge.
But definitely I do not take position right now, since previous plunge down has shown acceleration at the end.
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