Thursday, November 21, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 21/2013

Looks like our suspicious above heavy action was correct and market really has shown solid plunge down that looks very thrilling on daily-weekly-monthly-chart. If market is really as bearish as it is trying to show us, then it could reach as low as 1000 area...
On daily chart let's return back to discussion of wide triangle pattern. Upward breakout was able to lead market to 1550, but this has not happened and price has broken down by far. This carries oportunity for 2 possible patterns. First one is AB=CD that you see on the picture, while second - butterfly "buy". Currently risk still holds that this could be failure breakout (it always exists right after it), but as market stands and holds below as previous lows as 0.618 minor AB=CD target - this could be a sign of true break.
Hence our major tasks to watch for short oportunity and control the truth of breakout.

We know that gold market likes to re-test broken lows. And we have two of them. But 1251 looks more important, since this is major low on daily. If market will show lazy retracement that we see now, then we could get an Agreement with 1251 that could become nice oportunity for short entry. Since major risk (and invalidation point) of our scenario is failure breakout - this will force us to use 1265+ as stop area. Only if market will pass through all K-resistances and return right back above the lows we could say that this was failure breakout. So, control the size of your position, since 10$ per contract is significant. Far stops are always become a company, when you try to take position right after some breakout. Second way to act is to wait when (and If) downward action will continue. This will give worse entry price, but stop probably will be tighter. Anyway, 1180 is significant target and whatever entry point we will choose, risk/reward ratio is nice.
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