Sunday, November 24, 2013

Gold Weekly Nov 25-29/2013

Whether we will get upward retracement and possible BC leg of larger AB=CD down move or not – that was our question for previous months and not much has changed here by far. And looks like bullish sunshine was not as long as it could. Market has moved and closed below October lows. Fundamental situation and CFTC data stand not in favor of possible appreciation. Seasonal trend is still bullish, but it is not always lead to growth. Sometimes, it could just hold depreciation and now we see something of this kind, since market stands in some range since August.
Our previous analysis (recall volatility breakout - VOB) suggests upward retracement. As market has significantly hit oversold we’ve suggested that retracement up should be solid, may be not right to overbought, but still significant. Take a look at previous bounces out from oversold – everytime retracement was significant. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And now, as market has broken through 1250, next target is precisely previous lows around 1180. In fact this will be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if, say, market will shows something like double bottom. Price is not at oversold right now and not at major support, so really bearish market should reach previous lows level. 

Last week has clarified situation very well. Trend has turned bearish and market has erased potential bullish stop grabber. This moment by itself shows bearish sentiment. Previous week was solid move down, price has passed through major 5/8 resistance and has closed near the lows. Another significant moment is that market has closed below MPS1. This tells that we can’t treat current move as retracement anymore. Also, interestingly that after such solid move down right from 1810 area – market has shown only small major 3/8 retracement although was strongly oversold. As market is not at oversold right now, it has good chances to proceed lower.
Currently I do not see many patterns here. The short term one that we probably will focus on is AB-CD that has target precisely at previous lows. Second, this pattern could shift later to Butterfly “Buy” if it will break through 1180.

On daily time frame trend is bearish as well, and again – price is not at oversold. Here we see the same AB-CD as on weekly – market has reached minor 0.618 target and clear out previous lows. These lows are not as significant as, say, 1180 lows, since they in fact (I mean 1250) just a reaction on major 5/8 support. But still to hold absolute bearishness, I prefer to see retracement only to 1284-1289 level – combination of 3/8 Fib resistance and WPR1. First is because market is not at oversold and has hit just minor target – the less retracement will be all the better. Besides, I do not want see if bearish market will pass through WPR1 – this will point on some hidden weakness, even if we will not find any weakness signs on surface. But theoretically, if even price will retrace right up to 1311-1313 K-resistance area and overbought – that will be acceptable, but it should not go any further. If it will – this will be too much for retracement in current circumstances. Thus, two levels to watch for potential sell entry – 1284-1289 and 1311-1313 K-area. But as market already has pass through major resistance and 1250 lows, hit 0.618 target and holds there – I do not want to say that any retracement will definitely happen. It could, and if it will – we know what levels to watch for. If it will not – then we will have to prepare different trading plan on Tuesday. Also, guys, here we can’t talk about DRPO or B&B, because recent retracement up was greater than 3/8 level. It means that most part of steam was out of the pot.

Here we have butterfly, but it is not very reliable. Mostly by 2-3 reasons. First is very small right wing retracement. Typical butterfly level should be 0.618 – 0.88, but here it is 0.382 at best. This tells about strength of the bears. Second reason – too fast move to the 1.618 point, long nasty candle. When butterfly has such finish it has more chances to fail and carries a lot of risk, that made it not very reliable. Finally, third reason, but it stands not particular with butterfly. Take a look how market response on completion point – by no means, curious right. It seems like somebody has put someting heavy on the price and it can’t show even small bounce, very tight action. Combining that with MACDP we could get a bearish dynamic pressure, since trend has turned to bullish but price action is not. This overall situation makes shy chances on possible bounce even smaller. On hourly chart I also do not see any bullish signs or patterns right now. This makes me think that we really could get continuation without bounce, but lets do not be too hasty. If it really will be the case – we will try to enter on small bounce somewhere between 1250 and 1180 level...
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