Tuesday, November 26, 2013

Gold Trend Nov 26/2013

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1371-1421 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – Next support 1220-1225
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1254-1264 and 2nd tier 1272-1280
Initial Support 1230-1240 and 2nd tier 1218-1222

The last update listed resistance at 1254-1264 and the high was 1248.
Support was listed at 1215-1225 and the low was 1225.

Clearly the initial slide in gold prices this week was the result of the news of an Iranian compromise, as that news drained some flight to safety premium from the gold market. Gold did seem as if it was lifted by US data flows on Monday which in turn might have downgraded the prospect of tapering ahead of the widely anticipated March 2014 timing that was already largely factored in by most markets. With gold underperforming relative to silver and copper prices to start the new trading week, it would seem like gold was indeed being tripped up by its safe haven status but seems to have caught up during the early part of Tuesday. The bull camp might noted that open interest has declined in the face of the recent consolidation/slide in gold prices and that might suggest the bear camp lacks interest in pressure gold prices below the 1225-1235 level.

IT’S A HOLIDAY SHORTENED WEEK DUE TO THANKSGIVING IN USA and odds favor today will be the last ave volume day for this week.

Gold Short Term
Last update we discussed that support was the two purple channel lines with the first at 1220-1225 with the ideal number at 1222 as the next weekly support point. The 2nd purple channel line was at 1205-1208.   The low turned out to be 1225.70 and just a hair from the 1st purple channel line.
Resistance is the 1254-1264 area and 1272. Gold must get above the green 200 hour moving average at 1263 and then 1272 to neutralize the short term downtrend. Support is the 1230-1240 area for Tuesday and the purple channel line at 1218.
As discussed in the intraday on Monday, the Dec Gold contract is in its final week of trade and covering on Monday and Tuesday by the shorts were the best shot as they will be the only two average volume days this week due to the holiday.

  What's Next?
We discussed yesterday that once gold hit 1220-1225 a bounce back towards 1255-1260 could develop at any time due to the oversold condition. The high for Tuesday has hit that area.   At the moment the 200 hour moving average is 1263 and weekly resistance is 1272.  By Wednesday volume will be small and that means that any moves could be enhanced due to liquidity.  Usually things are quiet at this holiday but not on every year.
We’ve tested the 1st support (1220-1225) and 1st resistance and its only Tuesday. It’s still possible to go visit the weekly resistance at 1272 but odds do favor 1255-1263 a bit more as a high.  A close above 1272 this week would give us a short term reversal and could neutralize the intermediate term downtrend.
Bottom Line
Gold and silver are in downtrends and the first sign of a bounce did develop at 1st support on Monday with a nice reversal.  But we still need to get back above 1272 for something more meaningful.
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