Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1351-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – support 1220-1225 and 1205. A close below 1205 will favor new lows below June. A close above 1272-1280 weekly favors correction from November is over.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1254-1264 and 2nd tier 1272-1280
Initial Support 1230-1240 and 2nd tier 1218-1222
The last update listed resistance at 1254-1264 and the high was 1258.
Support was listed at 1230-1240 and the low was 1239
CME GROUP NEWS
What's Next?
We got our bounce to 1255-1260 on Tuesday and now the question is what about Wednesday?
Odds favor a range of 1235-1240 on the downside and 1254-1264 on the upside.
At the moment the 200 hour moving average is 1259 and weekly resistance is 1272. By Wednesday volume will be small and that means that any moves could be enhanced due to liquidity. Usually things are quiet at this holiday but not on every year.
We’ve tested the 1st weekly support (1220-1225) on Monday and 1st daily resistance.
It’s still possible to go visit the weekly resistance at 1272 but odds do favor 1255-1264 a bit more as a high. A close above 1272-1280 this week would give us a short term reversal that would neutralize the intermediate term downtrend and send fresh buy signals.
Bottom Line
Gold and silver are in downtrends and the first sign of a bounce did develop at 1st support on Monday with a nice reversal. But we still need to get back above 1272 for something more meaningful.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1351-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Bearish – support 1220-1225 and 1205. A close below 1205 will favor new lows below June. A close above 1272-1280 weekly favors correction from November is over.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1254-1264 and 2nd tier 1272-1280
Initial Support 1230-1240 and 2nd tier 1218-1222
The last update listed resistance at 1254-1264 and the high was 1258.
Support was listed at 1230-1240 and the low was 1239
CME GROUP NEWS
The gold market saw an early high in the Tuesday trade and then
gradually gave ground throughout the remainder of the trade. Apparently a
weaker Dollar and some soft US scheduled data failed to provide the
bull camp with enough ammunition to hold the initial attempt to recover.
Some traders are suggesting that looming month end book squaring might
provide some lift in the coming sessions but that potential windfall
might be moderated by thinning holiday trading conditions. Unfortunately
gold failed to benefit from positive US housing results and then the
market failed to benefit from slightly softer than expected Consumer
Confidence data. In short, gold doesn't seem to be tracking classic
economic readings but it is possible that gold might be tracking more
closely with the currency markets.
Gold Overview
A more plausible reason for gold not paying attention to other events
is the Rollover out of December gold and into February was the most
likely cause of Tuesday’s action as the last few volume days took place
on Monday and Today. From here on into next week the volume will reduce
as USA goes on holiday.
Things will mostly return to business as usual next week, but the last
month of the year will have funds locking in gains in equities in case
of a downturn and the 15% bash of the gold stocks still may have to put
up with end of year tax selling as investors unload the dogs of the year
and the gold stocks are clearly the leaders there. The Junior’s face
the toughest challenge as many of them will be going under as the lower
of them are pretty much out of cash. The divestment in GLD inventory
this year is coming from all sides --- Funds like Paulson down 65% are
getting a lot of liquidation and perhaps those who really seek physical
are taking some deliveries from the GLD inventory to supply demand to
the East. You have to ask yourself where else it could possibly be
coming from?
Gold and the November correction
The lower green channel line is the lower price range from the 2008
low and momentum and this is where price is sitting at the moment. It
is also at an EXACT point where the 2011 downtrend line is touching the
2008 line and PRICE IS THERE AT THE EXACT SAME TIME.
This is a most important juncture to watch because we could be at the
low point IF JUNE IS IN FACT THE BEAR MARKET BOTTOM. Here’s what to
watch for.
This is the last line support before the June lows. If we support here
the angle of the ascent will be similar to what we saw from 2009 to Aug
2011.
A CLOSE ABOVE 1272-1280 on a FRIDAY will suggest that the line is
holding. A close above 1310-1322 adds to the forecast. A close above
1351-1404 and the MEDIUM TERM BEARISH TREND upgrades to NEUTRAL. That
would be a big sign that the correction in gold has ended. Each sign
will add to the other in confirmation. A weekly close above that red
line would encompass all three items we’re watching.
What if the June low is not going to hold? Here’s the two scenario’s.
If we do break below and close below 1205-1220 --- odds favor we test
1100-1160. If gold can climb back above the green line within 2 to 3
weeks and close above 1272-1280, odds will be high that the bottom has
taken place in metal.
If not --- then odds favor a test of 1030-1050 and silver near 16 before the next potential bottom in gold.
What about Silver ?
Silver has actually touched the medium term moving averages on two
different occasions ----- one day each time. The 25.12 high of
August and the 23.09 high of October. They both turned out to be
important peaks ----- so at the moment ---- the traders are still
selling the medium term points --- but that won't always be the case. A
weekly close above 23.09 would also take the TREND of silver from
bearish to neutral.
Gold Short Term
The potential that gold has made a low is possible due to the scenario
we discussed earlier. The other downtrend lines on the daily are more
important than the hourly. The purple downtrend line is from November
and we could still go down and test it. If we do early next week or even
during this holiday week, I think it’s going to hold as support.
Resistance is the same as Monday, 1254-1264 (We hit 1257.70 Tuesday)
and the ideal target is that green 200 hour moving average. The only
other key number right now is the 1272 line. A weekly close above
1275-1280 favors higher. (Note: the wedge line on the daily charts that
broke must be overcome also and that is in the same price range right
now. Keep in mind that wedge line is a MUST TO OVERCOME in order to
have a chance to turn things up.
Support on Wednesday is 1231-1241. And then 1218-1222. Odds favor 1231-1241 as the area that holds on Wednesday.
What's Next?
We got our bounce to 1255-1260 on Tuesday and now the question is what about Wednesday?
Odds favor a range of 1235-1240 on the downside and 1254-1264 on the upside.
At the moment the 200 hour moving average is 1259 and weekly resistance is 1272. By Wednesday volume will be small and that means that any moves could be enhanced due to liquidity. Usually things are quiet at this holiday but not on every year.
We’ve tested the 1st weekly support (1220-1225) on Monday and 1st daily resistance.
It’s still possible to go visit the weekly resistance at 1272 but odds do favor 1255-1264 a bit more as a high. A close above 1272-1280 this week would give us a short term reversal that would neutralize the intermediate term downtrend and send fresh buy signals.
Bottom Line
Gold and silver are in downtrends and the first sign of a bounce did develop at 1st support on Monday with a nice reversal. But we still need to get back above 1272 for something more meaningful.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
