Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1341-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Neutral – support 1180-1190 and 1203 -1222. Short term cycles were due to bottom Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we have the lowest price of cycle ---1210 on Dec 4th. Price is about to make its next move into Dec 18th and if its higher we need to take out 1244.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1244-1254 and 2nd tier 1259-1262 (and 1272 weekly)
Initial Support 1220-1229 and 2nd tier 1204-1214
The last update listed resistance at 1234 to 1244 and the high was 1242.
Support was listed at 1222-1225 and the low was 1225.
What's Next?
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Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1341-1404 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish - resistance 1333-1343
Short Term ~ Neutral – support 1180-1190 and 1203 -1222. Short term cycles were due to bottom Dec 3rd (plus or minus 72 hours) and we have the lowest price of cycle ---1210 on Dec 4th. Price is about to make its next move into Dec 18th and if its higher we need to take out 1244.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1244-1254 and 2nd tier 1259-1262 (and 1272 weekly)
Initial Support 1220-1229 and 2nd tier 1204-1214
The last update listed resistance at 1234 to 1244 and the high was 1242.
Support was listed at 1222-1225 and the low was 1225.
As detailed last night we favor the next short term cycle underway and
got the first part of move to 1242. When we say next cycle underway we
are always talking standard deviation of one and that will never cover
all cycle turns but most. There are and will be cycle’s points that do
not make the bell curve and are outliers. There isn’t a formula that
will black box all turns. The April crash in gold covered 5 standard
deviations, a once in a lifetime event on average.
Until we move above 1254-1262, it is still possible for the current
cycle to be a down one. The first thing gold needs to do is exceed
1244, the Friday high. We did anticipate it to hold today and it did
but we need to get it out of the way. We need above 1244 to complete
first task of going higher and would like to see it on Tuesday.
Moving below 1222 Tuesday begins to give favor to bears but key is the
1198-1210 area of support. Below that favors cycle lower into mid-month.
Gold Short Term
Watch where green 200 hour moving average and where the blue line
resides. We need one of these pullbacks to hold that line and then
exceed Friday’s high at 1244 in order to get to 1254-1262. Since it has
held 4 times, its strongest resistance this week, but the 5th try of a
resistance point becomes the one that can most often give way. Because
of the repeated attempts the entity selling finally completes their
order or the control boyz will give up that level and set up shop a bit
higher. In this case odds favored would be Weekly resistance at
1272-1275 area first.
The two purple channel lines area at 1200 and 1180 are the channel line
supports and dotted line double bottom December low support. At the
moment, Tuesday 1st SUPPORT is 1220-1225 as weekly NUMBER of high
importance is 1222 on Friday closing basis. If trend is to turn up to
1272 it often will support on a test intra week. If we fail now to move
above 1244 and break below blue line then it’s possible to go back and
test 1220-1225 as 1225 is current weekly low to begin. Moving below
1216-1220 puts the short term trend and cycle turn in compromise because
another probe so soon of 1210 is usually a sign of inherent
weakness. The control boyz know a NEW LOW below June could trigger a
drop to the 1030-1100 area. A break below the dotted area returns us
back to the purple channel lines and short term cycle will favor
inversion lower in the same manner as the Sept to Oct 15th drop.
What's Next?
Gold will fight to stay near 1220-1225 on a closing basis. A DOUBLE low
at 1210 took place last week. Gold did go after the first uptrend
resistance on Monday at 1244. If we fail now and close below 1220 the
downtrend cycle is still in play. If we break above the Friday high of
1244 odd favor the test of the peaks on the hourly chart --- 4 of them
--- in the 1252-1259 area.
The Monday listed range last night was exact with 1220-1225 and 1243
the range listed for Monday. Now we either exceed 1244-1247 or we’re
going to head back towards 1220-1225.
We’ve got to find support at the blue line on the hourly chart near 1230
and worse case hold 1220-1225. Otherwise the cycle turn here is going
to continue in the same manner as since September and be dominated by
the lower price trend.
Bottom Line
The last two Decembers were very weak ones and we do need to keep in
mind the trend is down still on all timeframes and all the updates since
February just before the crash had the medium term trends go bearish
along with the intermediate and short term ones from the latter half of
2012. The PRICE patterns themselves do NOT show a turn is taking
place. The cycles do suggest a low point in time is soon to develop and
another bounce attempt like in July/August will try and form.
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If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
