Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ Bullish– support 1222-1230. Short term cycles favor higher into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours)
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1266-1276 and 2nd tier 1282-1262 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1245-1255 and 2nd tier 1230-1237
The last update listed resistance at 1244 to 1254 and 2nd tier 1259-1262 and the high was 1267. However, gold spent only 25 minutes in the entire day above 1262-1263 Support was listed at 1220-1229 and the low was 1237.
Gold Short Term
What's Next?
The short term cycle waited until the last day of the window for a turn but pulled it off last Friday with a low and a close above 1222. Evidence of a major low forming is on the rise but we have work to do still. At least it’s a positive change that is taking place that can lead to more.
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Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ Bullish– support 1222-1230. Short term cycles favor higher into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours)
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1266-1276 and 2nd tier 1282-1262 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1245-1255 and 2nd tier 1230-1237
The last update listed resistance at 1244 to 1254 and 2nd tier 1259-1262 and the high was 1267. However, gold spent only 25 minutes in the entire day above 1262-1263 Support was listed at 1220-1229 and the low was 1237.
Gold Short Term
We suggested last night that the place we needed to exceed was 1244.
Monday did get to 1243 so we weren’t sure if that was going to be it so
we were pleasantly surprised when early morning showed us at 1248.
While we got our test of 1244 on Monday, we now got our test of
1254-1262 on Tuesday and we even spent almost a half hour above 1262
during the height of the rally. Of the test of 1254-1262 we pointed out
that there had been 4 tests of it and the odds favor that a 5th test of
resistance is the one most often broken and that also worked out on
Tuesday. It’s always impossible to keep an exact bead on the market but
if things play out the shorts have most likely set up shop to try and
curb the rally in the 1272-1277 area. If not then near 1292. The one
big development is the CONTROL BOYZ are the ones that are long according
to the COT reports. Keep in mind that it is not a timing tool as the
control boyz will build a position that will go against them for as long
as it takes to exhaust the other side – the speculators and managed
money funds. But once exhausted the control boyz start JACKING UP or
LOWERING the price at which the other side needs to chase in order to
cover their positions depending on which trend is in play.
The places to now watch is;
First the purple channel line we just exceeded. Note how price has
come back to support on it. Since it’s a new front contract the lines
need to be tweaked a bit at first as the premiums disappear and the
price basically becomes spot. Sometimes we hit it right on from the
get-go and we’ll see how this one does. The 2nd area to watch is
1247-1254 on Wednesday…perhaps even a re-test of 1244. That should be
support if this short term cycle has gusto in it. A close below the
blue line near 1230 would not be good and a close below 1222 would
render it a dud. At the moment we do not think we’re going below 1222
until perhaps the next cycle in the 2nd half of the month if it turns
out to be a down cycle. For now as long as we can hold 1237-1244 the
potential to move higher into next week remains intact. From a channel
point of view the 1230-1234 area should be the maximum downside at the
moment and barring some “event.” As long as we hold the purple channel
line odds favor 1272-1275 to be hit. Even if we hold the dotted support
area the odds will favor it but not as much. Its mid-week Wednesday
where the most highs and/or lows for the week are established so it’s
possible for the high on the Wednesday trade. If the cycle plays out to
the end (and that is favored) any Wednesday peak would still lead to
one push higher that begins late Thursday or early next week. The only
exception would be if we hit 1272-1275 tomorrow. While that would not
mean that this burst has to be over, it would achieve the objective
resistance target. Closing above 1272-1275 this Friday would favor
higher price objectives. In summary support is 1245-1255 and probably
strongest near 1251-1255. Resistance is 1267-1277 with strongest near
1272. The short term trend went to neutral last week, and turned bullish
this morning.
What's Next?
Gold’s fight to hold the key 1222 Weekly support number on a Friday
close was successful last week and we reap the reward as we’re jumping
back to test 1272 the next key weekly number. Recall the other and most
important one is 1322 and that one is the crash price low from April. A
WEEKLY MONTHLY CLOSE ABOVE THAT NUMBER NOW WILL PUT A MAJOR DENT AND
WILL MOST LIKELY TURN THE MEDIUM TERM BEARISH TREND TO NEUTRAL.
So far everything is playing out. The short term cycle turned up on the
last day of the window and interestingly that low on Friday at 1210
also gave the MEDIUM TERM CYCLE THE LOWEST price it needed as the WINDOW
was also open. It will remain open until the 10th of Jan so we can’t
rule out another shot lower. But at least price has qualified for a low
in the window and regardless of what happens the qualifications have
been at least met.
Wednesday’s can always provide highs and peaks for the week. Just be
aware of that. We favor some pullback action towards 1254 and even 1247
is not out of the question for a Wednesday low in East or London
trading. That would be filling the gap in their market.
In summary the TARGETS on the upside of 1254-1262 has been met and the
2nd target of 1272 was within 5 bucks. There’s still a chance to see
1272 and even a chance for more. However expectations have been met on
the upside. The short term trend is now bullish and will remain so as
long as we are above 1230.
If we hold the purple channel line the 1272 should be in the cards on
Wednesday. If we hold 1254 and get back above 1262 it will also still
be in play. Anything below there drastically reduces the chance to do
it Wednesday. Even 1254 would be a harder to achieve 1272 on
Wednesday. The short term trend is up. Be aware that all great starts
since Nov 1st have fizzled out quickly so be careful.
Bottom LineThe short term cycle waited until the last day of the window for a turn but pulled it off last Friday with a low and a close above 1222. Evidence of a major low forming is on the rise but we have work to do still. At least it’s a positive change that is taking place that can lead to more.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
