Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ Bullish– support 1222-1230. Short term cycles favor higher into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours) A CLOSE BELOW 1222-1230 PUTS SHORT TERM TREND BACK DOWN.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1259-1272 and 2nd tier 1280-1284 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1244-1250 and 2nd tier 1230-1237
The last update listed resistance at 1266-1276 and the high was 1263.
Support was listed at 1245-1255 and the low was 1251.
CME GROUP
What's Next?
The short term cycle waited until the last day of the window for a turn but pulled it off last Friday with a low and a close above 1222. Evidence of a major low forming is on the rise but we have work to do still. At least it’s a positive change that is taking place that can lead to more.
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Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ Bullish– support 1222-1230. Short term cycles favor higher into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours) A CLOSE BELOW 1222-1230 PUTS SHORT TERM TREND BACK DOWN.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1259-1272 and 2nd tier 1280-1284 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1244-1250 and 2nd tier 1230-1237
The last update listed resistance at 1266-1276 and the high was 1263.
Support was listed at 1245-1255 and the low was 1251.
CME GROUP
Gold spent most of the trading session below the prior closing level and
in what seemed to be a corrective track from the gains seen earlier in
the week. A further slide in the dollar should have provided more lift
to the gold market but some gold longs might have seen the slide in
equities as a potentially undermining situation. A sharp drop in Indian
gold imports last month was also seen to have soured the tone of the
market early in the session.
The rally so far this week has not had the internals.
Gold Short Term
Mid week Wednesday has pulled back and to some extent that fits the
bill. I am concerned at how long gold is hugging the purple line. It
is support but for the pattern to remain bullish it usually ends the
downtrend on Thursday so I’m hoping that’s what we’re going to see. We
had overseas and NY test the 1251-1252 area on the downside and
1260-1263 on the upside.
The place to now watch is;
The purple channel line is still at center stage and the way price is
pulling back right on the line. My concern is if we start dropping
below 1244-1247 the slope could get more slippery for gold and a
pullback towards the green 200 hour moving average at 1236 or even the
blue line at 1230. The deeper we go under the breakout point near 1247
the more chance of price giving way. If there is gusto in this cycle
the 1244-1247 area should normally provide support. While below 1244
would not necessarily mean the end of the uptrend it’s where the
strength of the upside starts to come in question.
A close below the blue line near 1230 would not be good and a close
below 1222 would render it a dud. The 1st target of 1254-1262 was met
and as far as the 2nd target of 1272, as long as we hold the purple
channel line odds favor 1272-1275 to be hit.
Even if we hold the dotted support area the odds will favor it but not as much.
In summary, the uptrend is not broken but the chances of the 2nd
target for this week at 1272 is a little diminished as we enter
Thursday. Support at 1244-1247 is important for gold to hold as far as
showing its strength. We have to get above 1263-1267 (the daily highs
this week) to get to 1272. First resistance above that would be near
1280.
What's Next?
On a worst case scenario gold needs to hold 1222 (the weekly closing
support number). But even that would not be good and this could turn
into just another bounce. Anything under the green 200 hour moving
average by more than a few bucks will not be good for the short term
uptrend.
HUI, NUGT, and GDX all peaked at the moving averages and turned down.
That is not a good showing. The only excuse would be to fill the gap.
GLD got above the moving averages and hit the channel line. ITS
pullback was to the moving averages. It’s the only good showing. So we
have to be careful because the action this week could have been and
does smell like a short cover rally.
The other side of the coin is we peaked on Wednesday and have filled the gap on the price charts.
In summary, the TARGETS on the upside of 1254-1262 has been met and
the 2nd target of 1272 was within 5 bucks. There’s still a chance to
see 1272 but it will diminish if we trade below 1244-1247.
If we hold the purple channel line then 1272 is still possible for
this week. Anything below 1244-1247 drastically reduces the chance.
The short term trend is up but be aware that all great starts since Nov
1st have fizzled out quickly so be careful.
Bottom LineThe short term cycle waited until the last day of the window for a turn but pulled it off last Friday with a low and a close above 1222. Evidence of a major low forming is on the rise but we have work to do still. At least it’s a positive change that is taking place that can lead to more.
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2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
