Follow The XM Bull
Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ NEUTRAL– support 1222-1230. A breakout failure on Thursday puts Short term cycles into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours) in big trouble and ready to reverse down A CLOSE BELOW 1222-1230 PUTS SHORT TERM TREND BACK DOWN---Thursday’s close barely held 1222 – if it doesn’t it could tank.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1230-1238 and 2nd tier 1247-1254 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1212-1222 and 2nd tier 1192-1203
The last update listed resistance at 1259-1272 and the high was 1257.
Support was listed at 1244-1250 and 2nd tier 1230-1237---but the price low was 1222----which is the key weekly number but was a 3rd tier support.
Gold Overview
4:23 AM 2,210 Feb contracts sold -$5.40
6:53 AM 1,872 Feb. contracts sold -$4.80
9:45 AM 2,431 Feb. contracts sold -$2.50
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Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 -resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ NEUTRAL– support 1222-1230. A breakout failure on Thursday puts Short term cycles into Dec18th (plus or minus 72 hours) in big trouble and ready to reverse down A CLOSE BELOW 1222-1230 PUTS SHORT TERM TREND BACK DOWN---Thursday’s close barely held 1222 – if it doesn’t it could tank.
Support and Resistance
Initial Resistance 1230-1238 and 2nd tier 1247-1254 (1272 ideal weekly resistance)
Initial Support 1212-1222 and 2nd tier 1192-1203
The last update listed resistance at 1259-1272 and the high was 1257.
Support was listed at 1244-1250 and 2nd tier 1230-1237---but the price low was 1222----which is the key weekly number but was a 3rd tier support.
Gold Overview
Our
only take is the medium cycle is still pulling gold down but the budget
agreement in Washington may have given the market room to believe that
taper is coming in again.
The
idea that the Fed stimulus is even remotely inflationary is hard
to swallow when there is over $2 trillion in excess reserves at the Fed
because the banks are not lending
There has been reasoned talk out there about how short the market is and
that a big bank has cornered the market on the long side, readying to
annihilate the wrong way specs. We reported the same based on COT
reports.
As pointed out by James Mc of GATA yesterday, they had their chance
to do so following the big rally. Didn’t happen. As per the open
interest drops, some specs did exit their short positions. But,
certainly not the ones entrenched with The Gold Cartel’s orchestrated
short, precious metals war campaign.
The bottom line is the Commitment of Traders Report remains extremely
suspect according to GATA. The CME put out its warning it could not be
sure of the reliability of what was being reported to them for a REASON.
Why put out the report in the first place if you are not even sure it
is reliable? In what other industry would that be tolerated?
Furthermore, there have been reliable reports to GATA that JP Morgan
is trading using offshore accounts, which may be for themselves, or for
other accounts … say for the likes of an Exchange Stabilization Fund,
etc. This could easily show up as spec short positions and designed to
do just that. In addition, the OTC market is supposedly some 8 times
larger than what transpires on the Comex. We don’t know what is going on
there which might counter the visible Comex positions.
In other news
The Dollar Index turned its daily trend to down, further confirming the
recent failure to re-enter the uptrend channel that it lost in September
and failed to recapture from the end of October rally into Mid-November
and the pullback to 79.87 is final support before an outright bearish
downtrend gets elected. The latter half of October rally in gold for
two weeks is the only time gold and the dollar have not followed each
other since September. Both have been moving lower and the Euro
continues to rally to its upper levels of resistance as more
deflationary trends are being witnessed in Europe.
Gold Short Term
We discussed last night my concern for how long gold was hugging the
purple line on its pullback and that if we dropped below 1244-1247 that
the slope down could get slippery for gold. We suggested a close below
1230 would not be good and below 1222 would render the move a dud. Well
once we lost 1244 the market just kept dropping and dropping. By time
we got to NY the blue line at 1230 was support and then NY sent it to
1222 during the session. So we got all the price points right --- but
they were all the down ones to watch out for. Gold did close above 1222
but that was it.
The chart shows the breakout above 1254 on the 5th attempt on
Tuesday. Breakouts like this are almost always strong and bullish.
That ‘s why we got concerned last night when gold kept hugging the
purple channel line and pulling back for what was becoming too long for
such a chart pattern. Then when we hit 1244 the market tanked. The
failure of a breakout such as this is rare. Here’s the points that
really killed the market with instant sell orders;
4:20 AM 2,081 Feb. contracts sold -$4.204:23 AM 2,210 Feb contracts sold -$5.40
6:53 AM 1,872 Feb. contracts sold -$4.80
9:45 AM 2,431 Feb. contracts sold -$2.50
The place to now watch is the 1220-1222 area. If we can hold that
and push back above 1233-1244 then the trend higher into Dec 18th could
still play out but we think the odds are not high for that. If that
1222 area breaks down the next point of support is the blue line in the
1200-1206 area and then the purple channel lines 1180 and 1165. In
summary the short term uptrend has been neutralized and unless there is
an immediate turn here at 1220-1222 a break lower towards or under 1200
can develop either Friday or early next week. Friday has resistance at
1233-1243 and support (if 1220-1222) breaks will be at the blue line
first and then the purple lines. The trend is neutral as price is back
into a sideways channel. We have to be above 1254 to favor higher and we
must close below 1222 but more importantly below the blue line for a
bearish move under 1200 to develop.
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1. Open your account HERE
2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
Moneybookers
Paypal
You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
In order for your payment to be processed each month, please send me an email requesting payment and stating the amount of lots you have traded and your MT4 account number between the 20th and 24th of the month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards