Monthly
Market slowly but stably moves lower here. There was no outstanding
action on previous week, thus, we hardly could see any changes on
monthly chart. Chances on appearing of possible upward AB=CD are melting
week by week. Market has moved and closed below October lows.
Fundamental situation and CFTC data stand not in favor of possible
appreciation. As market was significantly oversold we’ve suggested
retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward
retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this
setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it,
then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And now, as market has
broken through 1250, next target is precisely previous lows around 1180.
In fact this will be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if,
say, market will shows something like double bottom. Price is not at
oversold right now and not at major support, so really bearish market
should reach previous lows level. Gold will be jiggered if it wouldn’t
test previous lows, since this is very typical for gold market.
Weekly
Overall context here is bearish as well. As we’ve said previously, price
has broken through major 5/8 Fib support here. Previous week has made a
challenge to show meaningful retracement up, but all that price could
do is just to test monthly pivot point and bounce down. This action
confirms bearish sentiment. Also take a look that passed week almost has
become an inside one. Recent three week have really tight range, but it
is possible that some acceleration could follow on FOMC meeting.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area.
Daily
On daily time frame again - situation mostly could be treated as
“indecision”. Tactically, market has accomplished our short-term setup
and shown upward retracement to 1270 area, but this move just can’t
change anything strategically and can’t impact on overall balance on
gold market. In fact, price is coiling inside of tight range that on
coming week coincides with an area between WPR1 and WPS1. This is
logical since nobody wants to take additional risk right before Fed
meeting. CFTC data and trading volume of Chicago Exchange confirm this.
Very probable that market will continue to stay in the range till FOMC
meeting, but then breakout is possible and very probable that this
breakout will be downside, at least to accomplish AB-CD target and clear
out stops below 1180. The reason for that is that price stands between
0.618 and 1.0 extension and at least should show fake breakout or spike
down to complete AB-CD target of Wednesday volatility. As we’ve
discussed previously, market quite rare leaves untouched targets and
changes direction between Fib extensions. Conversely, at maximum –
market will continue move lower and this could be real breakout through
1180 area.
4-hour
Here we better can see how really choppy and sloppy price action is.
Movements are really nervous. As market has shown any significant action
in one or other direction – suddenly it shows opposite one and cancels
previous action. This is very typical for indecision situation. It is
difficult to find any patterns in this mess. As market has shown
failure upward breakout – it has moved right to the opposite border of
the consolidation. Now it is very probable that market will test WPP and
then will estimate short-term direction - either to WPR1 or WPS1. Major
direction we will get probably, only after FOMC meeting...Personally
for me guys, gold market looks not very attractive for trading right
now.
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If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
