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Sunday, December 15, 2013

Gold Weekly De 16-20, 2013

Monthly
Market slowly but stably moves lower here. There was no outstanding action on previous week, thus, we hardly could see any changes on monthly chart. Chances on appearing of possible upward AB=CD are melting week by week. Market has moved and closed below October lows. Fundamental situation and CFTC data stand not in favor of possible appreciation. As market was significantly oversold we’ve suggested retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And now, as market has broken through 1250, next target is precisely previous lows around 1180. In fact this will be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if, say, market will shows something like double bottom. Price is not at oversold right now and not at major support, so really bearish market should reach previous lows level. Gold will be jiggered if it wouldn’t test previous lows, since this is very typical for gold market. 

Weekly
Overall context here is bearish as well. As we’ve said previously, price has broken through major 5/8 Fib support here. Previous week has made a challenge to show meaningful retracement up, but all that price could do is just to test monthly pivot point and bounce down. This action confirms bearish sentiment. Also take a look that passed week almost has become an inside one. Recent three week have really tight range, but it is possible that some acceleration could follow on FOMC meeting.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area.

Daily
On daily time frame again - situation mostly could be treated as “indecision”. Tactically, market has accomplished our short-term setup and shown upward retracement to 1270 area, but this move just can’t change anything strategically and can’t impact on overall balance on gold market. In fact, price is coiling inside of tight range that on coming week coincides with an area between WPR1 and WPS1. This is logical since nobody wants to take additional risk right before Fed meeting. CFTC data and trading volume of Chicago Exchange confirm this. Very probable that market will continue to stay in the range till FOMC meeting, but then breakout is possible and very probable that this breakout will be downside, at least to accomplish AB-CD target and clear out stops below 1180. The reason for that is that price stands between 0.618 and 1.0 extension and at least should show fake breakout or spike down to complete AB-CD target of Wednesday volatility. As we’ve discussed previously, market quite rare leaves untouched targets and changes direction between Fib extensions. Conversely, at maximum – market will continue move lower and this could be real breakout through 1180 area.

4-hour
Here we better can see how really choppy and sloppy price action is. Movements are really nervous. As market has shown any significant action in one or other direction – suddenly it shows opposite one and cancels previous action. This is very typical for indecision situation. It is difficult to find any patterns in this mess. As market has shown failure upward breakout – it has moved right to the opposite border of the consolidation. Now it is very probable that market will test WPP and then will estimate short-term direction - either to WPR1 or WPS1. Major direction we will get probably, only after FOMC meeting...Personally for me guys, gold market looks not very attractive for trading right now.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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