Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 - resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ NEUTRAL–A CLOSE BELOW 1220-1222 PUTS price test of 1198-1210 upon us and a close below 1203 favors lower. A close above 1247-1254 favors higher.
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1334-1387 to neutralize.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish – neutral on weekly close above 1272 - resistance 1305-1322
Short Term ~ NEUTRAL–A CLOSE BELOW 1220-1222 PUTS price test of 1198-1210 upon us and a close below 1203 favors lower. A close above 1247-1254 favors higher.
THE FOMC MEETING RESULTS TODAY CAN BE BIG
EITHER WAY.
Initial Resistance 1247-1257 and 2nd tier 1266-1272 AND 3RD TIER 1292-1305
Initial Support 1218-1228 and 2nd tier 1203-1210 AND 3RD TIER 1155-1182
Last update listed resistance at 1247-1257 and the high was 1247.
Support was 1218-1228 and the low was 1227.
Gold Overview
Gold Short Term
Initial Resistance 1247-1257 and 2nd tier 1266-1272 AND 3RD TIER 1292-1305
Initial Support 1218-1228 and 2nd tier 1203-1210 AND 3RD TIER 1155-1182
Last update listed resistance at 1247-1257 and the high was 1247.
Support was 1218-1228 and the low was 1227.
Gold Overview
It’s all about the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the announcement comes
right on the ideal day for the short term cycle turn --- DEC 18th. It’s
amazing how many times the FOMC meeting is within 72 hours of our key
turn. Perhaps they look at the same indicator? LOL
A run of upbeat U.S. economic data, including the latest nonfarm
payrolls report and retail sales, have ramped up expectations for the
Fed‘s last meeting of the year, and Congress has reached a two-year
budget deal.
This could set the stage for Fed officials to consider the first
reduction to their $85 billion-per-month bond-buying program. It’s a
tough call, as markets have done well. On our weekly updates, we show
the interest rate scenario on the verge of a breakout higher. The only
ammo the Fed will have when the business cycle turns down will be to
lower rates. Perhaps they already know the breakout is about to happen
and if so, they will make believe their policy is what set rates
higher. They have no control of long term rates, and just go with it.
Some feel waiting a bit longer to make sure the numbers stay strong is
the way to go. The one consideration is this will be Bernanke’s last
appearance as chairman. Perhaps he might do what is right and if it’s
the wrong decision, the new Fed chairman can promise change.
We don’t know for sure as Ben may just discuss the issues around when
the right time to pull the switch will be. When we talk trillions we
can assume that 85 billion is nothing in context. We have discussed
“FED SPEAK” as their new and perhaps only tool. That means that
whatever he says, they will change it if they have to, especially with a
new Fed boss coming in.
The bottom line is we usually get a SPIKE in both directions to start
and then some back and forth and finally a move. Anything can happen
and with the IDEAL cycle date and the medium term cycle ideal date next
week --- there is a chance of a big move in gold. More so than usual
but the price pattern and the cycle has left things to go in either
direction. While this may seem disappointing if you think about it, it
is MIRRORING exactly the market as it doesn’t know either. So in a way
they are being TRUE in form by being neutral going into Wednesday.
A move above 1247-1251 gives the advantage to the bulls and above 1262
more so. The 1272 area is key also and the potential for gold to move
to the 1292 area---the September low or even 1300 on the upside can’t be
ruled out.
On the downside, a move below 1218-1222 favors a test of 1198-1210. A
close below 1222 favors a test of 1203-1210 and a close below 1203 could
see 1172-1182 for starters.
With end of the year low liquidity the control boyz can wreck havoc for
the remainder of the week. Combine that with short and medium term
cycles --- and with price right at the LONG TERM LINES on the weekly
charts and you have potential for a big move. The problem is direction
and how to try and safely play it. Big swings on both sides beginning
at any point can take place. Interestingly this is an Armstrong panic
cycle week on top of it where big moves are much more likely to take
place. IT comes at the culmination of important cycles we watch ---
that’s for sure.
the pattern is totally neutral ready to move in either direction. What
we’ve described above is the best watch we have. Cycles and price as we
view them are neutral ---and that’s the true reflection of the market.
Anything else is conjecture and only 50/50.
On the downside 1203-1222 is most likely 1st support. The 1218-1222
area is where weekly support has been and 1210 is the December low. The
purple lines are now way towards the 1135-1162 area and a weekly
support of 1172 number --- which has the same bearing as 1222 ---1272
and 1322 have meant to us over the past couple of months.
You can see how important 1251-1254 is and look at the times gold has
stopped there. Even when it broke above it was reversed. When a market
says can go either way then we report it that way. We’re just at a
major point in time and price and we’re being honest with you. That’s
better than filling you with a story on price that can go exactly the
other way. The chart speaks for itself below. Do you see a trend
there? If the answer is no its because there isn’t.
A move above 1247-1254 favors bulls. But the CLOSE above 1247 – 1254
will be what’s important. Sure it could be 1280 by the close but it
could also exceed that and turn down just like ITS SHOWN US IT CAN DO
OVER THE PAST WEEK. For traders, we will try and update the signal page
as we see it but sometimes it’s just best to stand aside, wait for the
close and then try and pick up a position the next day on a pullback.
The market will be here day after day and we must never say “I must get
in this market as it’s going to bust higher.” The last two years have
proven that wrong time and again.
What's Next?
With the FOMC on Wednesday, gold is waiting --- as it has been for two
weeks. Ben is leaving and the major cycles are upon us. IN some ways
the market is actually acting normal as it should at a time like this.
Be cautious as this thing can SNAP in either direction and on a big
move. If it does, there will be an opportunity on a pullback or a turn
to take a position that has a chance. Let’s see if the market gives
that chance.
Bottom Line
THE FOMC MEETING IS NOW WHAT ITS ALL ABOUT. Lets accept it and try to
position ourselves accordingly. A move towards 1170-1180 could be a buy
--- and a close above 1247-1254. A sell could be a close below 1222
and 1203. Let’s see how they play it. Sometimes on the sideline is
best. Wait for the train to start moving then get aboard.
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2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
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You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
