Market slowly but stably moves lower here. There was no outstanding
action on previous week, thus, we hardly could see any changes on
monthly chart. Chances on appearing of possible upward AB=CD are melting
week by week. Market has moved and closed below October lows.
Fundamental situation and CFTC data stand not in favor of possible
appreciation. As market was significantly oversold we’ve suggested
retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward
retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this
setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it,
then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And now, as market has
broken through 1250, next target is precisely previous lows around 1180 –
price almost has achieved it. In fact this will be the last chance for
possible upward bounce, if, say, market will show something like double
bottom. Price is not at oversold right now and not at major support, so
really bearish market should reach previous lows level. Gold will be
jiggered if it wouldn’t test previous lows, since this is very typical
for gold market. That’s being said – primary object for monitoring right
now is price action around previous lows. Whether we will see true
breakout or it will be failure break and wash&rinse of lows. Latter
action in general is very typical for double bottoms and fake breakout
could be the first sign of possible retracement up.
Weekly
Overall context here is bearish as well. As we’ve said previously, price
has broken through major 5/8 Fib support here. FOMC decision has led to
further downward continuation, but market significantly has reduced the
pace – either due end of the year or due changing situation on the
market. At the same time SPDR fund data and overall fundamental picture
still shows bearish sentiment on the market.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and
target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear
out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area.
I suspect that we should be ready at minimum to clear out of previous
lows.
Daily
Trend here is bearish as well, market just hangs above the target and
gradually is forming butterfly “buy” pattern. As market has achieved
1.27 extension too fast, this usually means that market will continue to
1.618 target at minimum. Existing of butterfly lets us approximately
estimate minimum downside target – 1165-1170 area. It includes daily
AB=CD target, butterfly and WPS1 for coming week. Thus, if it will be
fake breakout, market probably should stop somewhere around 1165-1170
area. As we have a lot of stop orders right under 1180 – as they will be
triggered, market will accelerate lower and probably will reach
specified levels.
4-hour
In very short-term perspective, it is possible that market will show a
bit higher move up. There are two reasons for that. First is existing of
WPP around 1220 area, second – the habit of gold market to re-test
broken supports. Also this level includes major 3/8 Fib resistance
level. Also, if you will take a look at hourly chart, you’ll see that
latest candle was really fast there and this point on possible upward
continuation. Anyway, guys, despite how it will happen – the core stands
the same – we expect turmoil around 1180s lows.
Conclusion
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Market still holds bearish
in a long-term and slowly but stably drifts lower. In short term
perspective closing of financial year could hold investors from strong
action and taking large directional position. This already could be seen
from most recent CFTC report and CME trading volumes data.
In short-term perspective we expect challenge of 1180 lows, very
probably it will happen till the end of the year. Depending on whether
this will be true or fake breakout we will be able to discuss further
action.
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1. Open your account HERE
2. Send me your MT4 trading account number and email address
3. Send me your Paypal or Moneybookers account number
If you do not have a Paypal or Moneybookers account,
please click on one of the links below to open your free account today.
Moneybookers
Paypal
You will be paid $10 per standard lot of Gold traded and
all payments will be made by the 25th of each month.
thelordoftruth@gmail.com
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
