Here we do not have much changes. Market slowly but stably moves lower
here. There was no outstanding action on previous week, thus, we hardly
could see any changes on monthly chart. As market was significantly
oversold we’ve suggested retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption
of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD,
and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market
will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And
now, as market has broken through 1250, next target is precisely
previous lows around 1180 – price almost has achieved it. In fact this
will be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if, say, market will
show something like double bottom. Price is not at oversold right now
and not at major support, so really bearish market should reach previous
lows level. Gold will be jiggered if it wouldn’t test previous lows,
since this is very typical for gold market. That’s being said – primary
object for monitoring right now is price action around previous lows.
Whether we will see true breakout or it will be failure break and
wash&rinse of lows. Latter action in general is very typical for
double bottoms and fake breakout could be the first sign of possible
retracement up. If market will really pass through 1180s, next target
probably will be 50% support at monthly oversold around 1085$.
Weekly
Daily
4-hour
1-hour
Conclusion
As you can see market has formed inside week, and it means that overall
situation has not changed - context here is bearish as well. As we’ve
said previously, price has broken through major 5/8 Fib support here.
FOMC decision has led to further downward continuation, but market
significantly has reduced the pace – either due end of the year or due
changing situation on the market. At the same time SPDR fund data and
overall fundamental picture still shows bearish sentiment on the market.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and
target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear
out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area.
I suspect that we should be ready at minimum to clear out of previous
lows.
Daily
On recent week price has shown gradual upward move as retracement and
respect of butterfly 1.27 target and former WPS1. As we do not see any
upward impulse then we could suggest that this is really just
retracement. Following the gold’s habit to re-test broken lows now see
how market has reached 1200-1215 area. This area looks suitable for
possible downward reversal and finally moving to 1160-1175 area. Because
if price will move above WPR1 – this probably will be too extended
retracement for situation when market stands right on target.
This level is interesting by other reason as well. We could get 3-Drive
Buy pattern here. Take a look that if market will re-establish move down
right here, then 1.27 extension of this recent retracement will
coincide with 1.618 Butterfly target that simultaneously is an extension
of 1st Drive. This pattern is one that I like to deal with – it is
accompanied by divergence, has wedge shape. So we have signs of
exhausting here. Also do not forget about our former AUD analysis. AUD
hints on possible W&R of 1180 lows.
4-hour
Here trend is bullish and we see AB-CD retracement that we’ve discussed
on Friday. Market has hit the level that we’ve talked about – 1218
Agreement and re-tested previous consolidation. CD leg is flatter than
AB and this points on some exhausting of the upward momentum. Action
itslef has no signs of thrust, thus market has all chances here to turn
south. Any move above WPR1 will be quite unwelcome for bearish
development. As market has not hit significant target yet – it should
not show too extended retracements up.
1-hour
Here we also see butterfly “Sell” has been formed right at resistance.
Potentially this shape could shift to small H&S pattern. Also it is
accompanied by divergence.
Conclusion
Market still holds bearish
in a long-term and slowly but stably drifts lower. In short term
perspective closing of financial year could hold investors from strong
action and taking large directional position. This already could be seen
from most recent CFTC report and CME trading volumes data. As some
disagreement has appeared between mass-media information and market
signals, we suspect that gold is approaching to its lows. Unfortunately
we can’t say what possible bounce will be – retracement or reversal. But
whatever it will be – it definitely will give us very significant move
on monthly time frame . It would be logical to suggest that this will be deep retracement, because gold market has shown monthly volatility breakout and usually it has 2-leg shape.
In short-term perspective we expect challenge of 1180 lows again. Market has reached suitable resistance and is forming some signs of weakness. Let’s see whether they will lead us to desirable result.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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