Sunday, December 29, 2013

Gold Weekly December 30 - January 03, 2014
Here we do not have much changes. Market slowly but stably moves lower here. There was no outstanding action on previous week, thus, we hardly could see any changes on monthly chart. As market was significantly oversold we’ve suggested retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. If market will pass through it, then, obviously we will not see any AB=CD up. And now, as market has broken through 1250, next target is precisely previous lows around 1180 – price almost has achieved it. In fact this will be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if, say, market will show something like double bottom. Price is not at oversold right now and not at major support, so really bearish market should reach previous lows level. Gold will be jiggered if it wouldn’t test previous lows, since this is very typical for gold market. That’s being said – primary object for monitoring right now is price action around previous lows. Whether we will see true breakout or it will be failure break and wash&rinse of lows. Latter action in general is very typical for double bottoms and fake breakout could be the first sign of possible retracement up. If market will really pass through 1180s, next target probably will be 50% support at monthly oversold around 1085$.
As you can see market has formed inside week, and it means that overall situation has not changed - context here is bearish as well. As we’ve said previously, price has broken through major 5/8 Fib support here. FOMC decision has led to further downward continuation, but market significantly has reduced the pace – either due end of the year or due changing situation on the market. At the same time SPDR fund data and overall fundamental picture still shows bearish sentiment on the market.
Concerning targets – they are the same. First is previous lows and target of AB-CD down. More extended target, if price will not only clear out lows but hold below it – possible butterfly “buy” around 1100 area. I suspect that we should be ready at minimum to clear out of previous lows.

On recent week price has shown gradual upward move as retracement and respect of butterfly 1.27 target and former WPS1. As we do not see any upward impulse then we could suggest that this is really just retracement. Following the gold’s habit to re-test broken lows now see how market has reached 1200-1215 area. This area looks suitable for possible downward reversal and finally moving to 1160-1175 area. Because if price will move above WPR1 – this probably will be too extended retracement for situation when market stands right on target.
This level is interesting by other reason as well. We could get 3-Drive Buy pattern here. Take a look that if market will re-establish move down right here, then 1.27 extension of this recent retracement will coincide with 1.618 Butterfly target that simultaneously is an extension of 1st Drive. This pattern is one that I like to deal with – it is accompanied by divergence, has wedge shape. So we have signs of exhausting here. Also do not forget about our former AUD analysis. AUD hints on possible W&R of 1180 lows.

Here trend is bullish and we see AB-CD retracement that we’ve discussed on Friday. Market has hit the level that we’ve talked about – 1218 Agreement and re-tested previous consolidation. CD leg is flatter than AB and this points on some exhausting of the upward momentum. Action itslef has no signs of thrust, thus market has all chances here to turn south. Any move above WPR1 will be quite unwelcome for bearish development. As market has not hit significant target yet – it should not show too extended retracements up.

Here we also see butterfly “Sell” has been formed right at resistance. Potentially this shape could shift to small H&S pattern. Also it is accompanied by divergence.

Market still holds bearish in a long-term and slowly but stably drifts lower. In short term perspective closing of financial year could hold investors from strong action and taking large directional position. This already could be seen from most recent CFTC report and CME trading volumes data. As some disagreement has appeared between mass-media information and market signals, we suspect that gold is approaching to its lows. Unfortunately we can’t say what possible bounce will be – retracement or reversal. But whatever it will be – it definitely will give us very significant move on monthly time frame . It would be logical to suggest that this will be deep retracement, because gold market has shown monthly volatility breakout and usually it has 2-leg shape.
In short-term perspective we expect challenge of 1180 lows again. Market has reached suitable resistance and is forming some signs of weakness. Let’s see whether they will lead us to desirable result.
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