Tuesday, January 7, 2014

Gold Trend Jan 08/2014

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1321-1370 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – neutral on weekly close above 1222 - resistance-1272
Short Term ~ BULLISH – Be careful --- FOMC mins and Jobs data coming up.  The 1244-1254 area is resistance and short term cycle will only finalize on Wednesday.
Initial Resistance 1234-1244 2nd tier 1254-1257
Initial Support 1212-1222 and 2nd tier 1192-1202

Last update listed resistance at 1244-1254 and the high was 1245.
Support was listed at 1230-1234 and the low was 1225.  (2nd tier was 1214-1222) so we came closer to 2nd tier.

 Gold Short Term
the control boyz will be out tomorrow == with ADP jobs and FED FOMC minutes.  It could be a wide trade day.
A close above 1244-1248 leads to 1254 at the upper end of that 10 dollar range.  A close above 1254 then goes to somewhere near 1272 plus or minus 5 bucks on either side. The bullish read on pattern is it’s possible that we’re on wave 4 with wave 5 still in front of us on the very short term.  The bearish read is as we discussed last night---the market has had CHOPPY pattern since 1200 --- but rise had remained strong into the first resistance point.  It is also possible that the rise could end in three waves up --- an ABC pattern.
 The part that is missing is the OVERLAPPING of these waves.  Does Monday’s plunge to 1212.60 and Tuesday’s retest of weekly 1222 (actually only got to 1224).  The answer is no it was not deep enough.  Regardless, it is not a FULLY BEARISH PATTERN.  What we do know is that a close above 1244-1248 would tilt the upside to give us an up cycle is the most likely event with wave 5 being in play till around Jan 16th.   Support is 1212-1222 and then 1195-1205.  The green 200 hour moving average gave support on the plunge to 1211 on Monday and it sits around 1218 and by tomorrow could be near 1220.  In summary it’s the first week of the year and it’s normal for the TRENDS to fight for first rights. You can see the work they had to do to hold 1245.  The best outcome would be a mid month low as that would give us a blue cycle low.  Let’s see what develops on Wednesday.  As we enter it---we’re right near 1222 the key weekly pivot.
Gold hourly price chart
What Next?
Last night’s what next favored a peak at 1244-1248 and a pullback to the ADP and FOMC data for Wednesday and that’s exactly what we got with a 1245 peak and a pullback to 1222 Pivot (1224 was where we got).
THE FOMC MINUTES and ADP GET RELEASED on Wednesday.  Usually jobs and FOMC would 99% favor a gold peak and sideways to lower into the reports.  Since it’s the New Year --- will it act in the same manner?    Watch 1244-1248 now as resistance.  On the downside 1212-1222 is the support.
The thing we’re going to have to watch is now that a new year has begun, we have to be alert for CHANGES in market reaction to what we were used to last year.  If gold is entering a medium term move higher in Jan/Feb then expect surprise reactions to the stuff we see.  Once the trend becomes BULLISH it’s not going to matter what the news is.  There will be a few days’ setbacks and it will reverse and move higher…just like we’ve been seeing on the downside only opposite.

Bottom Line
IF WE BREAK ABOVE 1244-1248 then 1254-1258 would become the next target and potentially into the 1260-1272 range.  OTHERWISE the short term cycle began that leads gold lower into mid month.  If we close above 1244-1248 then a CYCLE INVERSION becomes the ODDS favor and higher to mid-month. 

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