Wednesday, January 8, 2014

Gold Trend Jan 09/2014

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1321-1370 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – neutral on weekly close above 1222 - resistance-1272
Short Term ~ BULLISH – Be careful --- FOMC mins and Jobs data coming up.  The 1244-1254 area is resistance and short term cycle will only finalize on Wednesday.
Initial Resistance 1229-1239 2nd tier 1254-1257
Initial Support 1212-1222 and 2nd tier 1192-1202 

 Last update listed resistance at 1234-1244 and the high was 1231.
Support was listed at 1212-1222 and the low was 1218.
Gold Short Term
The ADP AND FOMC DAY turned out to be only a 15 dollar range day. The key was we once again held the green moving average and we closed above 1222.  That still leaves the upside with potential to invert to a high on the 16th of the month.  Unfortunately we just can’t rule it out. With the support again on Wednesday we very well could run higher.
It is rare that the NFP jobs report gives gold a higher price.  One of the things we’ll be looking for as a clue is if it does indeed render higher.  We’ve already had 4 Friday’s in a row higher.  The thing we can’t rule out is a spike down first.  While gold is usually quiet and sideways to lower into the NFP jobs it will be interesting to see if gold pushes higher in Asia and London.  The one thing that is BULLISH on the chart is that DEC 31st flush out.  It’s a shame it had to be on a pre holiday session as it makes it harder for validity purposes.
A close above 1239-1244 leads to 1254-1264 and the short term cycle will be an up one.  BE SURE TO READ SILVER update and its 35 day cycle that it has displayed. It was due Jan 8th-10th and the target price to watch was also hit.
Support is 1212-1222 and then 1195-1205.  The green 200 hour moving average gave support on the plunge to 1211 on Monday and supported again on Wednesday.  The 1222 area keeps holding on the close. gold hourly price chart
What Next?
We did in fact go lower to the FOMC report but we did HOLD WHERE WE HAD TO IN GOLD above 1222 on the close.  Our first clue of the year – we did not sell off on ADP and FOMC minutes.  Now the NFP report comes at us on Friday.
Watch 1244-1248 now as weekly resistance and 1229-1239 as Thursday.  On the downside 1212-1222 is the support and then 1190-1200.
Gold will probably run to the 1230’s and perhaps 1235-1239 on Thursday.  Support should be strong near 1220-1222.  I don’t think we see lower on Thursday.  It’s Friday’s NFP that will be showdown.
Bottom Line
IF WE BREAK ABOVE 1244-1248 then 1254-1258 would become the next target and potentially into the 1260-1272 range.  OTHERWISE the short term cycle began that leads gold lower into mid month.  If we close above 1244-1248 then a CYCLE INVERSION becomes the ODDS favor and higher to mid-month. 

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