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Thursday, January 9, 2014

Gold Trend Jan 10/2014

Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1321-1370 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – neutral on weekly close above 1222 - resistance-1272
Short Term ~ BULLISH – Be careful ---Jobs data coming up Friday.  The 1244-1254 area is resistance. 
Initial Resistance 1236-1246 2nd tier 1254-1257
Initial Support 1212-1222 and 2nd tier 1192-1202


Last update listed resistance at 1229-1239 and the high was 1230.
Support was listed at 1212-1222 and the low was 1223.

Gold Overview
There is really no change from last nights update.  We await the NFP job numbers on Friday.   We’ve held 1222 on a closing basis and therefore it is still possible to rally into next week.

Gold Short Term
It is rare that the NFP jobs report gives gold a higher price.  One of the things we’ll be looking for as a clue is if it does indeed render higher.  We’ve already had 4 Friday’s in a row higher.  The thing we can’t rule out is a spike down first.  While gold is usually quiet and sideways to lower into the NFP jobs it will be interesting to see if gold pushes higher in Asia and London.  The one thing that is BULLISH on the chart is that DEC 31st flush out.  It’s a shame it had to be on a pre holiday session as it makes it harder for validity purposes.
A close above 1239-1244 leads to 1254-1264 and the short term cycle will be an up one.  BE SURE TO READ SILVER update and its 35 day cycle that it has displayed. It was due Jan 8th-10th and the target price to watch was also hit.
Support is 1212-1222 and then 1195-1205.  The green 200 hour moving average gave support on the plunge to 1211 on Monday and supported again on Wednesday an Thursday.  The 1222 area keeps holding on the close and therefore we can move to resistance on Friday.
gold hourly price chart
  What Next?
It all comes down to the jobs report on Friday.
Watch 1244-1248 now as weekly resistance and 1237-1247 on Friday.  On the downside 1212-1222 is the support and then 1190-1200.
Gold will probably run to the 1230’s and perhaps 1235-1239 on Friday.  Support should be strong near 1220-1222.  It’s Friday’s NFP that will be showdown.

Bottom Line
IF WE BREAK ABOVE 1244-1248 then 1254-1258 would become the next target and potentially into the 1260-1272 range.  OTHERWISE the short term cycle began that leads gold lower into mid month.  If we close above 1244-1248 then a CYCLE INVERSION becomes the ODDS favor and higher to mid-month.

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TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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