Sunday, January 12, 2014

Gold Weekly January 13-17, 2014

January has started with upward action. Still changes are shy here. Trend holds bearish. As on EUR, here I also have drawn new yearly Pivot Points. Appearing of 1361 Yearly PP could get special meaning from possible retracement point of view. It could become possible nearest upside target. Yearly PR1 is also very significant. We know that gold likes to re-test previously broken lows and consolidations. 1540 area is monthly overbought, YPR1 and low border of broken long-term rectangle. As market was strongly oversold, why it can’t reach overbought? This is very typical action for any market.
As another application of significantly oversold we’ve suggested retracement up. Thus, we’ve made an assumption of possible deeper upward retracement that could take a shape of AB=CD, and invalidation for this setup is previous lows around 1170s. In fact current move up could be the last chance for possible upward bounce, if, say, market will show something like double bottom. Currently price action is very suitable for that – W&R of first bottom. This action in general is very typical for double bottoms and fake breakout could be the first sign of possible retracement up. Bearish market has no other reasons to stop right here, since there is no support right now – it has passed through 3/8 support, it’s not at oversold. Currently we should keep a close eye on move up. Now I’m gravitating to the thought that there really was W&R.
Trend has shifted bullish here. Upward action couldn’t get solid momentum yet. Price move is very gradual. Initially we’ve thought that this could become butterfly “buy” pattern, but it also could be “222” Buy, since if we’ve suggested that AB=CD has been completed and W&R really has happened, this could be double bottom. Also take a look, we have solid bullish divergence with MACD. By treating valleys as AB=CD pattern we’ll see that minor extension stands almost right at Yearly Pivot Point, and 1.618 extension stands slightly higher than Yearly PR1. This is really interesting agreement. Weekly chart points that we should search possibility for long entry. Odds suggest that after AB=CD completion market usually shows at minimum 3/8 retracement, and on the weekly chart this will be not small move. This, of cause, makes sense only if W&R of 1180 lows really has happened. If we will be wrong with this suggestion then we will get the trap that we’ve discussed previously.
It is difficult to add something really new here. Anyway analysis will stand around this possible H&S pattern. Trend holds bullish here and price has come up to expectations. Recall that we’ve said – if market is really bullish and trying to shift long-term sentiment, it should not at any case turn down again right now, because this could become an end for any bullish perspectives. Price should not show any unreasonable and sudden downward returns when it forms reversal pattern. Otherwise this pattern will loose foundation. So price has held above MPP that simultaneously was neckline of intraday Double Bottom pattern and kept chances for upward continuation.
Thus, in nearest day we have to keep an eye on move to 1250-1267 that is neckline, Fib resistance and MPR1. Scalpers could try to find bearish setups there, since according to our plan price should return right back down to 1217-1220 area – where should spear the valley of right shoulder. But for daily traders major concern stands around chances for long entry by this reverse H&S pattern. So, for day-traders major activity still stands in the future.
So trend still holds bullish here. As market has held above neckline of Double Bottom pattern and that was former WPP, it has kept chances for greater reversal pattern on daily time frame chart. Now we have AB-CD pattern in progress with minimum target at 1257 that almost coinsides with WPR1=1260. That’s the setup for Monday. Unfortunately we will not get butterfly “sell” pattern here, since market already has exceeded previous high. If any retracement will happen prior target reaching, it will be better if price still will remain above WPP.
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