Long Term ~ Neutral - need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1321-1370 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – neutral on weekly close above 1222 - resistance-1272
Short Term ~ BULLISH – The 1255 area is resistance and 1262-1272. Short term cycle turn this week.
Initial Resistance 1253-1262 2nd tier 1272-1275
Initial Support 1235-1240 and 2nd tier 1222-1228
The last update listed resistance at 1253-1262 and the high was 1254.90.
Support was listed at 1235-1240 and the low was 1241.60
Gold Short Term
Medium Term ~ Bearish - Need a close above 1321-1370 to neutralize
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral – neutral on weekly close above 1222 - resistance-1272
Short Term ~ BULLISH – The 1255 area is resistance and 1262-1272. Short term cycle turn this week.
Initial Resistance 1253-1262 2nd tier 1272-1275
Initial Support 1235-1240 and 2nd tier 1222-1228
The last update listed resistance at 1253-1262 and the high was 1254.90.
Support was listed at 1235-1240 and the low was 1241.60
Gold Short Term
Gold’s high so far is 1255 on Monday and 1254.90 on Tuesday. We’ve had
1247-1255 as the 1st weekly resistance point and as we move into
mid-week Wednesday that has played out. We made a lower low on Tuesday
then Monday so we have to be aware that a pullback is in play perhaps
into Wednesday markets but of more short term importance is the cycle
turn that is due beginning today Jan 15th/16th ideally (plus or minus 72
hours) that could come into play until month’s end. That is also in
line with seasonal trends (generally speaking) over the past 30 years.
The first band of support will be the mini blue channel in the 1222-1236
regions for gold on Wednesday. There’s minor support near 1210-1214
but the next major support is still the 1180-1190 area. Resistance
returns to the 1247-1255 area on Wednesday and then 1262-1267.
Monthly resistance is 1294-1304 (1294 is the September low and 1304 is
the 34 week moving average. The short term trend is up but we tested 1st
weekly resistance at 1255 on Monday and 1254 on Tuesday. The short
term cycle turn date is Jan 15/16th (plus or minus 72 hours) and that is
what we need to watch out for. There’s a 70% chance we’ll peak and
pullback into month’s end. Gold’s pullbacks last week held the 200 hour
green moving average so 1st support on Tuesday is that along with the
price range where the mini blue channel is between 1225-1235. That’s
the odds favored 1st pullback zone at the moment. Gold’s highest close
since November was 1262 and 1267 was the highest intraday price. The
key weekly number that next needs to be exceeded is 1272 on a Friday
close in order to add one more notch to this uptrend that began 15
calendar days ago.
What Next?
We’ve reached 1st weekly resistance at 1255 and both Monday and so far
Tuesday has turned into a deeper pullback. The short term cycles are
due now and into the end of this week. Contradicting that is there was
nice action as the last pullbacks have supported the moving averages.
We had the potential to move higher into Thursday but the news today was
not gold supportive from a “SPIN” factor.
We’ve arrived at mid-week Wednesday and not counting the short term
cycle Wednesday has the highest degree day of the week to provide a low
or a high for the week. It’s certainly not always but as readers know
it does happen a lot. So from a price perspective it could be that
we’ll make an initial low on Wednesday to early Thursday morning and
another bounce back up attempt. That’s when the short term cycle will
be at its strongest to turn down through Monday so it should be an
interesting battle between the bulls and the bears.
Bottom Line
If we break above 1255-1258 the next target is 1262-1272 range. We
should see support on Wednesday in the 1225-1235 area. The medium term
trend of gold still has a significant chance of providing further upside
as we near the end of the month and in February. Up until the bear
market correction started the Chinese New Year was providing a good
launch pad for gold at the end of January. That will be the next factor
to watch and see if the bull trend has returned for gold. From a
seasonal standpoint the first half of January is up and the 2nd half is
usually down. So if we get a pullback into month’s end it doesn’t mean
the trend is still down on a medium term basis.
However we do have to get the ROTATION of the BLUE cycle into making
price lows and not highs. SHOULD we get a sharp DROP IN GOLD INTO
MONDAY it would be possible that the INVERSION process could take place
in that manner. Thus if that is the case --- and we get support at an
important level, then the potential to align the rotation in a bull
manner would come into play and a long position trade might present an
opportunity with low risk.
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
