Medium Term ~ Neutral – Trend is now neutral after one year in bearish mode. A close above 1420-1480 needed for next significant price point
Intermediate Term ~ Bullish – Gold bears keep trying to get gold to join silver in a seasonal downturn but just can’t do it yet. The wild card remains the Russia/Ukraine situation. A close above 1364 needed for higher. A CLOSE BELOW 1322 puts the seasonal downtrend in play and neutralizes the trend.
Short Term ~ Bullish – The Short Term Cycle window is open until March 19th – where a peak in gold is due ideally on March 16th ---plus or minus 72 hours --- but the divergence in silver continues to leave more than one avenue open in the metals. Next Fed meeting BEGINS
TUESDAY AND ENDS WEDNESDAY.
Initial Resistance 1392-1402 2nd tier 1418--1423
Initial Support 1352-1362 and 2nd tier 1344-1347
Gold Overview
Gold & Silver are creating a growing divergence with Gold capable of spiking up to monthly resistance (1390-1402) or 1420-1430 or while Silver is trying to exit the downtrend channel... It would not neutralize and get above the channel until a daily close above 21.60-21.70 occurs.
Gold reached the upper blue mini line on the hourly chart at 1392 on Monday -Additional resistance is the 1402 and 1422 area if needed. Odds are high here for a price peak and pullback to month end.
The First resistance listed last night was reached ~ 1392-1402 (at 1393)
We did close above the weekly resistance point of 1372 and the ODDS are that it favors reaching 1422. But let’s discuss something here.
Here’s the key with the weekly reversal’s. We ended last year saying that a weekly close below 1172 a weekly reversal price point would favor a move to the 975-1040 level in gold. That was because we were at the GREEN trend line on the WEEKLY CHARTS. We did favor a low at the END OF DECEMBER and a rally to begin the year. We never closed below 1172 AS 1180 WAS THE LOW.
We did forecast that we favored a July/Aug type rally to begin 2014.
We also stated that, depending on how price patterns play and the look of the rally it would be possible for even higher; up to 4 to 6 months. We’re not ready to forecast that yet.
The rally began on time.
The first reversal higher needed to confirm we were underway was 1222 and we got it.
The 2nd reversal on the weekly that we need to confirm higher was 1272. It took a while but we finally got it a few weeks ago. That week gold kept going past it.
The next weekly reversal we needed was 1322 and we go it. The 1322 price reversal was the most important to date because it is the crash low price in gold on that 600K volume day in April. We ended up getting it. That set the next price reversal at 1372. We just got it on Friday.
Does that confirm 1422 is coming? Does it favor to close above 1422?
First off, we can pull back to 1322 before moving higher and thus we could pullback to month end and then go towards 1422. We could even test 1272 before moving higher again. Look how deep the September sell off went before reversing.
The forecast for this rally met its time goals (the 5 points on the cycle chart) We got to the 6th point on Monday but IT IS A HIGHER HIGH THAN POINT 5 and that is not what happened during the July/Aug rally. So we finally had a divergence. TIME WISE, THE JULY/AUGUST RALLY WAS completed when we matched the 5 short term cycle points on the daily (cycle page) and had the exact color sequence from the July/Aug rally. TIME WAS COMPLETE.
The final thing that is missing is price. 1392 vs 1434. Actually that’s a pretty good forecast since it was done in early January. We consider the forecast complete but WE STILL favor the 1422 price point as the ideal number. (1410-1445) is a potential target also.
The second thing to keep in mind is while the ODDS favor pulling back here to month end with the short term cycle and then getting back to 1422 late. UNDERSTAND THAT THEY ARE ONLY ODDS AND at some point in time. A weekly reversal will fail and turn down or not be reached.
This is how we have to play the game. There are no absolutes. We have to go with the odds. Odds are that 1422 will be reached but the odds are that we can go to 1322 first or at least correct into month end.
Gold keeps getting more and more added to its strength and momentum. I’ll have some more good things to report later this month.
In summary, the odds favor that while gold is looking decent so far, it still has a lot of work to do and it is unrealistic to not favor corrections and pullbacks from the main trend.
KEEP IN MIND that I don’t view things in the way the “spin” press does. I think global economic weakness is not good for gold. I believe a better economy favors gold. The “spin” media thinks and preaches that BANK RUNS would/will make gold explode. I do not favor that. I favor IT WILL BE BEARISH for gold just like I was bearish in 2008. The “Spin" media says unemployment is good for gold. I do not favor the same thing. I favor employment is good for gold. These trends that they talk about lasts a couple of days or a week or two, and then price turns the other way.
Let’s see what happens on Tuesday. THE FED MEETING BEGINS. Odds do favor lower unless we hold if we fail 1355 and the 200 hour moving average to the next lower blue line at 1341.
Support is the 1351-1357 and then 1344-1347.
All trends remain up but today could have been it for this short term cycle. Resistance is 1372-1382 on Tuesday and weekly remains 1392-1402.
$20 FREE TO PARTICIPATE IN THE XM CONTEST ARENA
Open Real Account
Go to the XM Contest Arena
Register a Nickname and get $20 Free
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
All Profits Withdrawable
Free $20 Credit Added Automatically
Non Stop Contests to Join
Open a Real Account (you can use your existing account if you already have one)
Login to the XM Members Area
Register your unique Nickname and password
Enter the Contest Arena
$500,000 IN CASH PRIZES WAIT FOR YOU
-> http://tinyurl.com/q72y3uf
Keep Calm & Follow The Bull
The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog.
Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you . So just go now and start learning!
Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often.
In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money.
In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today.
In this section you will know the 3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology.
In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section.
In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with.
This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!
YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
King Regards
