Gold Trend April 25th 2014

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Gold Trend April 25th 2014

The 1265-1272 price target was reached this week and a hard push back up since yesterday to 1300 has developed.  It looks more and more like that Thursday spike  on the hourly chart was the flush out.  Still there are a lot of factors to consider as to the overall picture.

First lets look at the short term

The spike from 1268 to 1299 happened in one hour as the control boyz make good entries very difficult. The key point is that price has arrived at the area where the 2014 Uptrend line and the 2014 downtrend line meet.  Because we lost the uptrend line it is not out of the question there that this move to 1305 should be shorted and have expectations of lower prices into next week or a retest of support. The thing to keep in mind is that this type of setup where price tries to RE-ENTER TWO trend lines gives it MORE ROOM to fail the upside attempt.  So this could be some real cute set  up by the control boyz to once again suck everyone in. The other factor is the short term cycle turn was not due until Monday at the earliest.  We certainly can have early lows by two trading days which is the case at the moment.  Even if we go on the hunch that the spike low is the low, a pullback to the 1287 area would a much better place to consider than just wildly jumping in now.  In summary, the low may have been made but I think at the moment one has to wait for a better set up.  If we get a pullback, I'll consider.  But the importance of waiting for the right place with the lowest risk is always paramount, especially in a market like this that is trying to break out of a massive downtrend.  

Seasonals 

May is one of the strongest seasonal months of the year over the past 30 years.  If not THE strongest, certainly the 2nd strongest.  But since the bull market peak in 2011, the last two years have not been good for both April and May. To some extent that stands to reason because in a bear trend the most likely points NOT to rally would be during the seasonal moves because that is when the market usually MOVES or trends.  So while there is strong favor for a seasonal move up, it doesn't usually happen during a bear market cycle like the one we are in.

While there is nothing cast in stone, is the bull market back?

The best evidence so far is that it has NOT been confirmed yet by price action because we have not HELD the price points we needed to by losing the 1322 weekly reversal and the CLOSING of price below the medium term moving averages in March on the medium term.  We have pointed out that factor over and over on the daily updates at the website. That fact that we sold off so deep the last two weeks of March to avoid closing above the medium term moving averages on a monthly basis was enough to just close below the averages on a monthly basis and therefore did NOT confirm the lows are in place. That doesn't mean they are NOT in, but that price action has not confirmed so.

There is another consideration to look at.  

What are/were the points in time or the "window" of time most likely to provide the bull market lows for 2014?

Our main targets for a bull market low potential have been the end of Dec 2013/early Jan 2014 and or the June 2014 time frame.  Those are the two most likely or most favored points.  Our first point has yielded a rally which we described would be like the July/August rally of 2013 and once that was achieved, we would see if the potential to move higher and be the low would occur. So far we did achieve that rally and now we are at the point of evaluating whether that point was the low.  

So far, we have not gotten the PRICE CONFIRMATION we needed to confirm the likely hood that the low is in place.  However, What if this pullback is just the first pullback since the December low?  Is that a scenario that can be entertained?

Yes, but the pullback has to end soon, and we must hold the 1222-1272 region in order to still be in play.  Digging in closer, the 61% retracement of the 2014 rally was 1265 and 24 hours ago, we hit 1268 and then we got our flush out where price was spiked down and then back to 1299 in a short amount of time. 

 

The chart below is a bit busy but lets look at the situation. 

 

First let's address why the potential for JUNE to be the "final" low is a viable one but it can also be the BREAKOUT month. 

 

(NOTE: usually you see a red channel line where I have highlighted it with a WHITE ARROW LINE.)

 

The upper WHITE ARROW LINE is the top of a channel line that goes all the way back to 1993 and its called the "OLD CHANNEL LINE."  It took a full year (from the end of 2009 to the 2nd half of 2010) to break above that channel Line.  When it did occur, the final sharp move up to the 1923 peak took place. 

 

From the crash low  in 2008 to the peak was a total of 34 months.  From the month that we broke above the old channel line to the time we broke down deep enough to re-enter the channel was 34 months (June 2013).   If 34 is still in play, then June 2014 would be the target date for the bear market to end.  It can end in two ways.  First it can make a new low for the correction which would mean a new low under 1180 or it could choose that month to EXIT out and back above the upper old channel line.  Because we don't have confirmation in price yet from the March gold close below the medium term moving averages, we cannot say the low is in place with extreme confidence.   One observation right here is to now look at the arrow that says testing. 

 

As longer term readers know the GREEN CHANNEL LINE HAS PROVIDED THE MOMENTUM OR "SLOPE" OF THE UPSIDE TREND SINCE WE BROKE ABOVE ITS LONG TERM PIVOT OF 500 BUCKS. WAS EXCEEDED.  That line caught the 2008 crash bottom and the 2013-2014 price point lows.  Note how this weeks low is at this most important trend line.  We know it can be penetrated at times but we don't know which ones will support right at the line and which ones will penetrate.  We do know that a weekly close below 1222 would signal a line failure and the next level of support would come for gold near the 1000 area.

 

In summary, the longer term picture could have turned up and we are just re-testing this green line for the final time.  From a minimum standpoint, gold must close above the moving averages at 1294-1298 TODAY, and at end of April.  That will keep the potential alive that gold is trending bullishly by retaining price above the moving averages.  As you know 1322 is also an important number but the most important FACTOR in confirming and end to this bear market is for gold to do what it did in 2010---to break out above the OLD CHANNEL LINE on a monthly basis.   Observe closely the action right now. March nearly TESTED the old channel line at its highs (we think close enough) and now in APRIL it is testing the LOWER green channel line.  If the retest is successful it can be a set up for the next attempt at a BREAKOUT move.  That breakout move could be in JUNE or if we fail at this green trend line and close below 1222, then it is still possible for one final low in June.

Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com

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