Friday, April 25, 2014

Gold Trend April 25th 2014

 Follow The Raw
Follow The Raw & Let Your Dreams Come True
I_ Open Real Account ( Standard ) & Get Free €50 ( No Deposit Bonus )

This exclusive offer is available between 25/03/2014 and 25/06/2014
Join us now
What You Waiting For?

Gold Trend April 25th 2014
The 1265-1272 price target was reached this week and a hard push back up since yesterday to 1300 has developed.  It looks more and more like that Thursday spike  on the hourly chart was the flush out.  Still there are a lot of factors to consider as to the overall picture.
First lets look at the short term
The spike from 1268 to 1299 happened in one hour as the control boyz make good entries very difficult. The key point is that price has arrived at the area where the 2014 Uptrend line and the 2014 downtrend line meet.  Because we lost the uptrend line it is not out of the question there that this move to 1305 should be shorted and have expectations of lower prices into next week or a retest of support. The thing to keep in mind is that this type of setup where price tries to RE-ENTER TWO trend lines gives it MORE ROOM to fail the upside attempt.  So this could be some real cute set  up by the control boyz to once again suck everyone in. The other factor is the short term cycle turn was not due until Monday at the earliest.  We certainly can have early lows by two trading days which is the case at the moment.  Even if we go on the hunch that the spike low is the low, a pullback to the 1287 area would a much better place to consider than just wildly jumping in now.  In summary, the low may have been made but I think at the moment one has to wait for a better set up.  If we get a pullback, I'll consider.  But the importance of waiting for the right place with the lowest risk is always paramount, especially in a market like this that is trying to break out of a massive downtrend.  
gold hourly price chart

May is one of the strongest seasonal months of the year over the past 30 years.  If not THE strongest, certainly the 2nd strongest.  But since the bull market peak in 2011, the last two years have not been good for both April and May. To some extent that stands to reason because in a bear trend the most likely points NOT to rally would be during the seasonal moves because that is when the market usually MOVES or trends.  So while there is strong favor for a seasonal move up, it doesn't usually happen during a bear market cycle like the one we are in.

While there is nothing cast in stone, is the bull market back?

The best evidence so far is that it has NOT been confirmed yet by price action because we have not HELD the price points we needed to by losing the 1322 weekly reversal and the CLOSING of price below the medium term moving averages in March on the medium term.  We have pointed out that factor over and over on the daily updates at the website. That fact that we sold off so deep the last two weeks of March to avoid closing above the medium term moving averages on a monthly basis was enough to just close below the averages on a monthly basis and therefore did NOT confirm the lows are in place. That doesn't mean they are NOT in, but that price action has not confirmed so.

There is another consideration to look at.  

What are/were the points in time or the "window" of time most likely to provide the bull market lows for 2014?

Our main targets for a bull market low potential have been the end of Dec 2013/early Jan 2014 and or the June 2014 time frame.  Those are the two most likely or most favored points.  Our first point has yielded a rally which we described would be like the July/August rally of 2013 and once that was achieved, we would see if the potential to move higher and be the low would occur. So far we did achieve that rally and now we are at the point of evaluating whether that point was the low.  

So far, we have not gotten the PRICE CONFIRMATION we needed to confirm the likely hood that the low is in place.  However, What if this pullback is just the first pullback since the December low?  Is that a scenario that can be entertained?

Yes, but the pullback has to end soon, and we must hold the 1222-1272 region in order to still be in play.  Digging in closer, the 61% retracement of the 2014 rally was 1265 and 24 hours ago, we hit 1268 and then we got our flush out where price was spiked down and then back to 1299 in a short amount of time. 
The chart below is a bit busy but lets look at the situation. 
First let's address why the potential for JUNE to be the "final" low is a viable one but it can also be the BREAKOUT month. 
(NOTE: usually you see a red channel line where I have highlighted it with a WHITE ARROW LINE.)
The upper WHITE ARROW LINE is the top of a channel line that goes all the way back to 1993 and its called the "OLD CHANNEL LINE."  It took a full year (from the end of 2009 to the 2nd half of 2010) to break above that channel Line.  When it did occur, the final sharp move up to the 1923 peak took place. 
From the crash low  in 2008 to the peak was a total of 34 months.  From the month that we broke above the old channel line to the time we broke down deep enough to re-enter the channel was 34 months (June 2013).   If 34 is still in play, then June 2014 would be the target date for the bear market to end.  It can end in two ways.  First it can make a new low for the correction which would mean a new low under 1180 or it could choose that month to EXIT out and back above the upper old channel line.  Because we don't have confirmation in price yet from the March gold close below the medium term moving averages, we cannot say the low is in place with extreme confidence.   One observation right here is to now look at the arrow that says testing. 
As longer term readers know the GREEN CHANNEL LINE HAS PROVIDED THE MOMENTUM OR "SLOPE" OF THE UPSIDE TREND SINCE WE BROKE ABOVE ITS LONG TERM PIVOT OF 500 BUCKS. WAS EXCEEDED.  That line caught the 2008 crash bottom and the 2013-2014 price point lows.  Note how this weeks low is at this most important trend line.  We know it can be penetrated at times but we don't know which ones will support right at the line and which ones will penetrate.  We do know that a weekly close below 1222 would signal a line failure and the next level of support would come for gold near the 1000 area.
In summary, the longer term picture could have turned up and we are just re-testing this green line for the final time.  From a minimum standpoint, gold must close above the moving averages at 1294-1298 TODAY, and at end of April.  That will keep the potential alive that gold is trending bullishly by retaining price above the moving averages.  As you know 1322 is also an important number but the most important FACTOR in confirming and end to this bear market is for gold to do what it did in 2010---to break out above the OLD CHANNEL LINE on a monthly basis.   Observe closely the action right now. March nearly TESTED the old channel line at its highs (we think close enough) and now in APRIL it is testing the LOWER green channel line.  If the retest is successful it can be a set up for the next attempt at a BREAKOUT move.  That breakout move could be in JUNE or if we fail at this green trend line and close below 1222, then it is still possible for one final low in June.
Gold Weekly price chart with support lines
Samer Al Reifae

SmartTrader Tools
Get the newly designed trading tools package that can enhance your trading and assist you in achieving your trading goals. Maximize returns and discover new trading opportunities with this wide range of seriously advanced tools.

What is the SmartTrader Tools Package?
Nine unique and powerful trading tools completely designed for MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and available in one user-friendly, easy-to-install package. The package includes:

Sentiment Trader
 Sentiment Trader
At a quick glance, see what the general sentiment is and trade directly within the same window

Correlation Trader
 Correlation Trader
Determine correlation patterns between pairs in one app with key figures & notes
 Session Map
Session Map
A visual world sessions map synced to your local time-zone with calendar events

 Trade Terminal
 Trade Terminal
Advanced trade execution and analysis tool for quick, precision trading
 Excel RTD Link
 Excel RTD Link
The bridging tool for Excel pros allowing you trade from Excel based trading rules
 Alarm Manager
 Alarm Manager
Go beyond just receiving alerts. Automatically trigger orders or close trades based on your pre-set rules.

Correlation Matrix
 Correlation Matrix
A flexible and comprehensive matrix grid. See at a glance correlation scores and the strength of patterns.
Market Manager
Market Manager
Customise and create a Market Watch window with different layout options

Connect Panel
 Connect Panel
Your personal pick of news feeds and Binary Options trading direct from MT4

 How do you get the package free?
Visit our SmartTrader Tools webpage for more information on each tool and how to register.

Why Vantage FX?
Trade with Winners
Australian financial service providers, Vantage FX, have received a multitude of awards over the years including those from IB Times, Deal Makers, The World Finance Foreign Exchange Awards, Smart Investor and many more.

Vantage FX have
Award-winning Execution Speeds
Competitive spreads from 0.0 pips
24/5 Premium Customer Support
The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog.
Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you . So just go now and start learning!
Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often.
In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money.
In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today.
In this section you will know the  3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology.
In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section.
In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with.
This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
 King Regards