Sunday, April 27, 2014

Gold Trend April 28th 2014

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Gold Trend April 28th 2014
Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Need a close above 1292 in April to maintain neutral trend. A close below 1272 bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– 1265-1272 downside target met, now need close above 1312 for neutral reading and 1322 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral– The next cycle turn is due April 29th (plus or minus 72 hours) this week.  Last 
week’s low at 1268 met target 1265-1272. Need close above 1312 for bullish reading

 Initial Resistance 1307-1312 2nd tier 1316-1322
Initial Support 1293-1297 and 2nd tier 1277-1287

The last update listed resistance at 1299-1307 and the high was 1305.
Support was listed at 1287-1292 and the low was 1291.

Gold short term
The 1265-1272 target was reached last Thursday but it would have been much cleaner if the drop was inside the short term cycle window which begins on Monday. For now look for support at the purple channel lines in the 1282-1292 area on Monday and resistance at 1307-1315 at the dual gold lines.  The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday.  Any pullbacks to the purple channel line would be considered potential short term trade to buy. Watch the 1307-1312 as that is where 1st resistance should take place on Monday.
gold hourly price chart
What Next?
The price targets were met last week at 1265-1272 and it looks like it was a flush out and prices may have bottomed on Thursday. Everything is in place for a SEASONAL RALLY in the strong MONTH of May as the past historical data shows.  One thing however, is the past two years did not yield a May rally as we were in a bear market trend.
A short term cycle low is due and may have arrived. I’m looking for a potential entry on a pullback this week.  Look for resistance on Monday at 1307-1312. Support should be 1277-1287 for Monday/Tuesday.
Bottom Line
The trend looks to be turning up on the short term.  The FOMC meeting is Tuesday/Wednesday.  If we get a drop into Wednesday afternoon, look for it to be a buy opportunity.
Samer Al Reifae

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