Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Gold Trend April 30th 2014

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Gold Trend April 30th 2014
Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Need a close above 1292 in April to maintain neutral trend.
A close below 1272 bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– 1265-1272 downside target met, now need close above 1312 for neutral reading and 1322 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral– The next cycle turn is due April 29th (plus or minus 72 hours) this week.  Last week’s low at 1268 met target 1265-1272. Need close above 1312 for bullish reading.

Initial Resistance 1300-1307 2nd tier 1312-1317
Initial Support 1282-1293 and 2nd tier 1267-1277

The last update listed resistance at 1303-1307 and the high was 1302.
Support was listed at 1282-1293 and the low was 1286.
Note-- there are a few comments on GDX near the end of the report you might keep a look out for.

Wednesday will be a big day on the macro calendar. The FOMC winds up its two-day meeting and will likely continue with its gradual QE taper - but there will be more interest in whether we see a change in the tone of the policy statement after the hawkish surprise from the March meeting. We note that the S&P500 and 10yr UST yields are both broadly unchanged since the March 19th FOMC. It will also be interesting to see the Fed’s take on the recent positive US economic data surprises. The Fed is not the only G3 central bank meeting on Wednesday with the BoJ finishing its second April meeting on the same day.
Though the market expects the central bank to stay put for the time being in terms of policy as the effects of recent sales hikes wash through the economy, there will be some focus on its updated semi-annual outlook including GDP and inflation forecasts from 2014 to 2016. Wednesday’s data docket is pretty full. The US will print its advanced Q1 GDP – consensus is for growth of 1.2% on an annualized q/q basis in what was a weather-affected quarter. The ADP employment report will give us a preview of what to expect for Friday’s payrolls. The Chicago PMI for April will be released, as will German and Italian unemployment data. Amid all the recent talk about the possibility of ECB easing, Wednesday’s Euro area CPI report for April takes on additional significance. Consensus expects headline CPI of 0.5%, the lowest in four years. The US treasury will announce its quarterly refunding plans.

Gold short term
The 1265-1272 target was reached last Thursday but it would have been much cleaner if the drop was inside the short term cycle window which is now in play until Friday. We discussed support was 1282-1292 for Monday and the low was 1292.10.
Tuesday’s support at the purple channel lines is the 1282-1288 area watch that Green 200 hour moving average near 1292 as it gave us support on Monday. Resistance is 1303-1308 and 1312-1316 at the dual gold lines.  From a trend line perspective we don’t show additional resistance until 1340-1347 but the 1322-1331 area should also be a consideration. 1322 has been a major number since it made the crash low on April 15,2013 and is a weekly reversal number.  The 1331 area is where price would be above February and into March territory in price and is also the April high.
Gold hourly chart
The FOMC meeting begins Tuesday.  Any pullbacks to the purple channel line MIGHT be considered potential short term trade to buy. The problem that exists is the NON FARM PAYROLL is on FRIDAY.  That is yet another obstacle in front of us if we choose a long trade in gold. That is usually the most volatile day for gold and it is the last day for the Short term cycle turn window.  So it is not out of the question to test 1272-1282. It’s also important that the short term trend does not turn up until the dual gold channel lines become support. So there is a lot of consideration as to the risk of entering at the moment.
The consideration for a long entry might therefore be better to wait and see if the 1272-1282 area is tested or perhaps lowering buy intentions there.  There is nothing to say that the control boyz cant challenge that Fib support area at 1265 or more.  One look at the hourly chart still shows a downtrend.  The only clue we have of a potential low in place is the FLUSHOUT that occurred on Thursday.  We do have to admit that the move there does hold a high potential that a low was made.  At  minimum we would need to be above that dual blue downtrend line to say that the trend has turned up.  Even the HUI has pulled back to just below the moving averages on Monday.  So there’s a lot of uncertainty that still engulfs gold at the moment.

What Next?
There really is a lot of apprehension in the charts as the short term ones go back and forth between the moving averages.  On Monday night, the HUI, NUGT, GLD and GDX were slightly below the averages and on Tuesday night, slightly above.
The hourly gold chart has not broken the downtrend channel (neither has silver). The daily chart shows the 1272-1277 area as a good support point and with last week’s low at 1268 we could still pullback to that area without breaching last week’s low.  A BREAK ABOVE and CLOSE ABOVE 1307 is the first signal that the upside is gaining favor.  Either way---gold still has to get by FOMC on Wednesday, and NFP on Friday.
We looked at the seasonal and May is one of the strongest months of the year, but only when gold is in a bullish trend.  2012 and 2013 did not play out on the seasonal.
We need to CLOSE APRIL ABOVE 1292-1296 to maintain Neutral readings and not bearish ones.  Thus we can’t rule out another May surprise to the downside at the moment.  This is what price is giving us to work with.  Recall March, where price dropped over 100 dollars the last two weeks to avoid a bullish medium term signal.  There is a short term cycle low due between now and Friday.  But the FOMC and the NFP payroll is also between now and Friday.  Those are the two most important monthly events that rank as high as options expiration on the big contract months.  And on top of all that we don’t have an UPTREND as we enter Friday on the hourly chart.  We keep hitting the line but have not conquered it.

Bottom Line
It’s best to let it happen and the try to find an entry.  If we do get a spike to supports, ok then try and catch it with a reasonable stop. 
Anyone who tells you what is definitely going to happen these next few days is guessing. It can go either way here.  The ONLY evidence of a low is that FLUSHOUT from last Thursday at 1268.  If we get a pullback near 1277 ---- ok then a reasonable stop below it might be worth a trade attempt.  Just keep in mind that there is no guarantee.   Patience and limiting risk is utmost.  The markets will be here for the rest of our lives.  We don’t have to take risk bigger than necessary.  And yes, that is so hard to do.  So is making money in markets like this.   Once this correction is really over ---anyone who has money left will be able to expand that capital.  This will not always last like this and TRENDS like 2010 and 2011 will return at the TIME GOLD decides.
Remember, it’s the last day of the month and it’s a crucial time.

Samer Al Reifae

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