Thursday, May 1, 2014

Gold Trend May 1, 2014


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Gold Trend May 1, 2014
Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Need a close above 1292 in April to maintain neutral trend. A close below 1272 bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– 1265-1272 downside target met, now need close above 1312 for neutral reading and 1322 for bullish.
Short Term ~ Neutral– The next cycle turn is due April 29th (plus or minus 72 hours) this week.  close below 1272 bearish. Need close above 1312 for bullish reading.  

Initial Resistance 1297-1307 2nd tier 1312-1317
Initial Support 1277-1282 and 2nd tier 1263-1272


The last update listed resistance at 1303-1307 and the high was 1302.
Support was listed at 1282-1293 and the low was 1286.
Chinese Currency Collapses To 18-Month Lows; Nears PBOC Limits
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/30/2014 - 22:32
After widening its tolerance for real world volatility mid-March, the PBOC has faced a daily battering of USD buyers and CNY sellers which have driven the Chinese currency to its weakest level in over 18 months. However, things are starting to become problematic... while call buying and hedging is exploding - as carry traders and local specs rush to cover exposures, Bloomberg notes that Morgan Stanley fears as the yuan approaches the lower end of PBOC’s permissible daily trading range, anticipated intervention to defend band could put other currencies under selling pressure. The last time - Summer 2012 - that the PBOC defended its currency, EUR came under selling pressure but as Morgan Stanley notes, “In the very unlikely case” of PBOC not defending band, FX volatility would surge globally with implications going beyond RMB as markets would assume China’s economic problems might be significant...
On the heels of disappointing March data in China for Services and Manufacturing, China's "official" manufacturing PMI saw its lowest 'April' print on record (typically a period of renaissance post-New Year data snafus) missing expectations for the first time in 2014 and just marginally above last month's data (50.4, exp. 50.5, prev. 50.3) China is still in Schrodinger-land with "official' data (biased towards larger SOEs) in very modest expansion and Markit (weighted towards smaller - more realistic - entities) in considerable contraction. That China disappointment follows earlier data which saw Aussie PMI collapsed over 3 points in April to its lowest in 9 months with the deterioration broad-based across the key sub-components. As Goldman notes, production is now at its weakest in a year, employment remains in contraction and, most worryingly, new orders printed their largest contraction in 13 months. This is the 6th month in a row of Aussie manufacturing contraction.

Gold short term
Support is 1262-1272 and 1277-1281 and resistance is 1295-1306. The white lines are the support and resistance points as the downtrend and uptrend converge.  It may take one more day with NFP on Friday.
Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com

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