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Friday, May 2, 2014

Gold Trend May 2, 2014


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Gold Trend May 2, 2014
Long Term ~ Neutral - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Need a close above 1312-1322 for bullish trend. A weekly close below 1272 bearish.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral– 1265-1272 downside target met, now need close above 1312 for neutral reading and 1322 for bullish. A close below 1265 goes to bearish reading.
Short Term ~ Neutral– The next cycle turn is due begins Friday/Monday and lasts to mid month. A close below 1265-1272 bearish. Need close above 1303-1307 for bullish reading.

Initial Resistance 1289-1295 2nd tier 1303-1312
Initial Support 1277-1282 and 2nd tier 1263-1272

The last update listed resistance at 1297-1307 and the high was 1293. 
Support was listed at 1277-1282 and the low was 1277.
Previewing Today's Nonfarm Payrolls Number: The Key Things To Look For
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/02/2014 -

•UBS 180K
•HSBC 195K
•Bank of America 215K
•JP Morgan 220K
•Goldman Sachs 220K
•Citigroup 225K
•Deutsche Bank 240K
•Barclays 250K 
After a few days of extended verbal exchange, it was only a matter of time before Ukraine finally snapped and resumed a military operation to regain the lost cities in the east, especially once the IMF made it explicitly clear that should Ukraine lose control of pro-Russian controlled cities the $17 billion bailout package would be lost too. 
Sure enough, early this morning Kiev launched a military operation to regain control of the pro-Russian separatist stronghold of Slovyansk, overrunning numerous roadblocks and surrounding the city, officials said, but meeting stiff resistance from militants who managed to shoot down at least one helicopter.

Gold short term
It comes down to whether gold holds the support line or the 1265 low when the Non Farm Payroll comes out.
Support is 1262-1272 and 1277-1281 and resistance is 1289-1295 and 1303-1307. The white lines are the support and resistance points as the downtrend and uptrend converge. Odds favor trend direction to be decided today. The NFP report will favor a spike in price perhaps in both directions to clear the close stops and then direction.That’s what usually happens.
Gold hourly price chart
What Next?
Odd favor the NFP will make the decision today and price direction for the next two weeks into mid month begins either today or Monday/Tuesday. Cycles favor higher but price needs to make a decisive move above the trend line on the hourly chart. A close below 1265-1272 would be bearish for gold and could very well put the short term cycle in inversion mode (lower) next week.
Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 
 Do your own due diligence. 
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 
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