Wednesday, May 28, 2014

Gold Trend May 29, 2014

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What You Waiting For?
Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – Gold on the verge of TURNING BEARISH MEDIUM TERM. A close below 1272 on a weekly basis does it.
Intermediate Term ~ bearish– NEED two closes above 1277 in order to go back to neutral. Need close above 1312 and 1312-1322 for bullish.
Short Term ~ bearish– The short term cycle is up in the air at the moment. 

Initial Resistance 1265-1272 2nd tier 1277-1287
Initial Support 1234-1244 and 2nd tier 1222-1226

The last update listed 1258-1260 as support and the low was 1256. 
The close was 1259 right in between the numbers. 
Resistance was listed at 1272-1278 and the high was 1267.

Gold Demand
On the subject of retail bullion sales, Ed Steer (Casey Research) can speak from first-hand knowledge that A-Mark, one of the largest precious metal wholesalers in the U.S., said last week that business is virtually nonexistent. Except for the last few days, it's been that way at his store as well.
Koos Jansen: China gold demand falls in Q2; Shanghai, Hong Kong exchanges affiliating
Gold researcher and GATA consultant Koos Jansen reports today that Chinese gold demand has fallen in recent weeks and, while still strong, seems likely to be lower in the second quarter of this year than in the first. Jansen also reports that the Shanghai Gold Exchange, the primary exchange in mainland China, is planning affiliation with the Chinese Gold and Silver Exchange in Hong Kong.

US Dollar
The cycles we discussed on our weekly update for the US dollar for a potential turn in the May/July timeframe has so far held. But how can the USD continue to hold in the face of massive printing?
Cornell's Prasad to Forbes: Dollar Is Invincible, for Now
In an interview with Steve Forbes for Forbes magazine, Prasad noted the U.S. government has printed trillions of dollars since 2008 to keep the economy going, yet the huge paradox is that the dollar has not been debased.
Prasad said in fact many nations – especially in emerging markets – want to keep healthy levels of foreign exchange reserves, but there are few stable options for them.
Europe is probably not going to put its money in China or Japan. And China, aware of ongoing weakness in Euro and the pan-European economy, is unlikely to turn to Europe. On top of that, global finance reform has made holding foreign reserves more important than ever in many countries.

So, who’s left?
The United States. And the U.S. is doing its bit for the world by prodigiously providing large amounts of safe assets. That is U.S. government securities,” he said.

IMF chief says banks haven't changed since financial crisis
The head of the International Monetary Fund has warned that a persistent violation of ethics among bankers and rising inequality pose a major threat to growth and financial stability.
Christine Lagarde told an audience in London that six years on from the deep financial crisis that engulfed the global economy, banks were resisting reform and still too focused on excessive risk taking to secure their bonuses at the expense of public trust.
She said: "The behaviour of the financial sector has not changed fundamentally in a number of dimensions since the crisis. While some changes in behaviour are taking place, these are not deep or broad enough. The industry still prizes short-term profit over long-term prudence, today's bonus over tomorrow's relationship.
"Some prominent firms have even been mired in scandals that violate the most basic ethical norms - Libor and foreign exchange rigging, money laundering, illegal foreclosure."

EU Wants to seize money from All European Banks on a Flat Rate Basis
Posted on May 28, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
The European Banking Crisis is beyond description. A leak has come out that the Commission will simply seize money from all the banks on a flat rate basis benefiting the banks that have lost money from trading at the expense of the small savings banks.
Wolfgang Schäuble (born 1942) is Germany’s Federal Minister of Finance. He is a German career politician of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) party. Schäuble has come out disagreeing with the EU Commission saying that the seizure should be proportional to any individual bank’s risk. He wisely realizes that a one-size-fits-all in banking could set off a massive liquidation crisis. The local banks that were not involved in trading will have to pay for the big ones. That way, the EU Commission gets everyone’s accounts.
The entire European banking crisis is not to be blamed on Wall Street alone. The blame primarily rests upon brain-dead structure of the euro. To be politically correct, banks needed some portion of everyone’s debt as reserves. But the quality of the member bonds varied greatly as state debt does in the USA.
Another problem was the euphoria about the euro birth back in 1998. I was called in by Mercedes who had sold the British pound short because the headlines portrayed Britain would collapse because it was not part of the new euro that was going to conquer the world and displace the dollar. Mercedes was down $1 billion on that short position in the pound they took in anticipation of the euro. We used our model to get them out and reversed the loss. They then set up a meeting with the board of Daimler Benz who also sold the pound short in anticipation that the euro would become the new king. Mercedes got out of the hedge but Daimler did not. On the last day of that fiscal year, the world was stunned by the sudden announcement that Daimler and Mercedes would be merged.
This will be interesting for Schäuble has come out only because the plan has leaked from the EU Commission. Oh do we live in interesting times

Gold Short Term

Gold tried to reverse back up from 1260 on Wednesday but gave way once it reached the resistance line.
Prices are getting ready to accelerate to the downside. Unless we get a reversal here and close above 1277 then the potential of this break could move down towards 1222-1240 pretty quickly. Right now the bears have the advantage. We need to close above the dual resistance line for any sign of a reversal.
gold hourly price chart
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