Gold Trend May 30, 2014

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 Long Term ~ Bearish - Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway.
Medium Term ~ Neutral – We need to close above 1272 on the last day of May to avoid a bearish reading. BUT IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE FOR JUNE TO PROVIDE THE LOW FOR THE YEAR IN GOLD. Keep that in mind and don’t become too discouraged if we do close below 1272.
Intermediate Term ~ bearish– NEED two closes above 1277 in order to go back to neutral. Need close above 1312 and 1312-1322 for bullish.
Short Term ~ bearish–WINDOW CLOSES FRIDAY FOR THE NEXT TWO WEEK TREND.
A CLOSE ABOVE 1277 IS NEEDED IF GOLD IS TO REVERSE back to bullish. OTHERWISE, 1222-1240 CAN BE NEXT TARGET.

Initial Resistance 1265-1272 2nd tier 1277-1287
Initial Support 1234-1244 and 2nd tier 1222-1226

The last update listed 1234-1244 as support and the low was 1251. Resistance was listed at 1265-1272 and the high was 1267.

We move into August gold beginning next week as for all intents and purposes, June gold has been rolled out of.

We have maintained that falling economic and global economies are not good for gold, regardless of what you hear and see for a couple of days when gold rallies on bad economic news. Overall the last couple of years has continued a trend where gold moves lower and so do economies. However, don’t expect both to bottom out at the same time. Gold will most likely turn before the economies do, or before inflation returns.

If the inevitable outcome is a liquidity squeeze and a debt default, all assets at some point in time are going to turn lower. But a full blown liquidity squeeze could still be as far away as in latter 2015. We’re going to have to see how steep the global decline we’re seeing gets.

The problem of course is the myriad of statistics that are thrown at us continue to be changed as often as needed.

Japanese Retail Sales Collapse By Most On Record

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/28/2014 - 20:53

Given the pre-tax-hike surge, economists around the world were expecting some give-back from dragged-forward demand but the 13.7% MoM decline missed expectations by 2 percentage points. This was the largest MoM decline on record. Talking heads are already blaming the tax hike and year-over-year was just as dismal as it fell by the most since the 2011 Tsunami.
At some point in time one of the things we are going to see is a revolt by the people. This will be fueled by government corruption, soaring food prices, and taxation and fees until it gets to the snapping point. This is what is going on in Thailand and what launched the Ukraine situation before Russia and USA made it a new episode of the cold war.

The Middle Class Will Die Within 30 Years Leaving "A Wealthy Elite & Sprawling Proletariat"
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/28/2014 - 23:45

If we continue down this path of ignorance, we will be left with a "tiny elite and a huge sprawling proletariat" who have no chance of "clawing their way out of a hand-to-mouth existence," is the loud and clear message from UK government advisor David Boyle. As The Telegraph reports, Boyle cautions, "we won't own our own homes, we won't be able to afford it," adding that "we cheerled the rise of property prices not realizing that it would destroy, if not our own lives, but the lives of our children." His conclusion, "the middle classes have to wake up to prevent it happening and to create a political movement that will do it."

Our "Make It Look Good" Economy Has Failed
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2014 - 08:24

The essence of the U.S. economy is make it look good: never mind quality or long-term consequences, just make it look good today, this week, this month, this quarter: make the pink slime look like meat, make the company look profitable, make the low-quality product look good enough to close the sale, make the unemployment rate low enough to justify re-electing the toadies currently in power, make the body count of bad guys look good, and on and on--just makes the numbers look good now, the future will take care of itself. When rigged numbers are the basis of our success, we have failed.

Below is a great example as the real issue is that the unemployed over the past few years never re-entered the workforce and employers never had a re-hire spree.

Initial Claims Drop Near Cycle Low "As Good As It Gets" Levels
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2014 - 08:39

The flip-flopping noise of the initial claims data continues as last week's spike and miss is rebounded into this week's beat and drop. At 300k - down 27k from last week - initial claims are at their lowest since May 2007 - practically as good as it gets. Continuing claims continue to fall - now at 2.63 million - to the lowest in the cycle and lowest since Nov 2007. Continuing claims are falling at the fastest pace since 2010.

US Economy Shrank By 1% In The First Quarter: First Contraction Since 2011
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2014 - 08:49

Bottom line: for whatever reason, in Q1 the US economy contracted not only for the first time in three years, but at the fastest pace since Q1 of 2011.

Inventories did take a big fall. Maybe that’s why we have less and less unemployment claims as the economy contracts?

Excluding Obamacare, US Economy Contracted By 2% In The First Quarter
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2014 - 09:21

As if the official news that the US economy is just one quarter away from an official recession (and with just one month left in the second quarter that inventory restocking better be progressing at an epic pace) but don't worry - supposedly harsh weather somehow managed to wipe out $100 billion in economic growth from the initial forecast for Q1 GDP - here is some even worse news: if one excludes the artificial stimulus to the US economy generated from the Obamacare Q1 taxpayer-subsidized scramble, which resulted in a record surge in Healthcare services spending of $40 billion in the quarter, Q1 GDP would have contracted not by 1% but by 2%!

Consumer Comfort Plunges To 6-Month Lows
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 05/29/2014 - 09:54

Despite record highs in stock markets and talking-heads explaining that a terrible Q1 GDP print is nothing to worry about, Bloomberg's Consumer Comfort index collapsed to its lowest level in 6 months as 'Buying Climate' collapsed and economic expectations plunged from 48 to 42.5 (7-month lows). Those earning over $100k are happy and comfort soared but the comfort of those earning under $40k plunged to new cycle lows.

Gold Overview

we are arriving at the 34th month since the gold peak in August of 2011 and the 144th week overall. It is important to understand that when gold turns it will most likely be unannounced and does not have to necessarily be due to some big event.

As discussed earlier today in the intraday, the gold demand seems to be increasing again in the Far East and in India. At some point in time demand is going to outstrip the supply available at whatever the price is when that event takes place. Yes, it’s going to take a change in overall sentiment but that also is going to come once gold makes its low.

FRIDAY IS THE LAST DAY OF THE MONTH so it will be important to watch the closing prices. A close below 1272 that doesn’t reverse by Monday or Tuesday of next week, will keep prices in a bearish mode. However, June does hold a high potential for an important price low in gold to transpire. It is also possible that we will see gold move to the 1150 area in June and make a new low. Right now we have support in the 1222-1240 area and we expect gold will make an attempt to hold that level and attempt a recovery from that area should we trade down to that area.

Gold Short Term

Gold tried to reverse back up from 1260 on Wednesday but gave way once it reached the resistance line.

Prices are getting ready to accelerate to the downside. Unless we get a reversal here and close above 1277 then the potential of this break could move down towards 1222-1240 pretty quickly. Right now the bears have the advantage. We need to close above the dual resistance line for any sign of a reversal.

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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

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