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Fundamentals
Weekly
Daily
4-hour
1-hour
Nothing really drastical has happened since Friday, thus our fundamental
part of comments will be short. In general we’ve placed daily news and
rumors updates so and cover fundamental picture well. One thing that we
want to do right here is to take a look at recent CFTC data. Currently
it seems very important. If you remember from technical point of view we
still had some concerns on possible upward action, because technical
picture does not exclude this possibility yet.
Thus, CFTC data shows that in reality there are not many chances on this possible upward bounce. We do not know what will happen in geopolitical tensions because EU still wants to start some more sanctions within next week, while D. Cameron wants to cut Russia off from SWIFT banking system. But we do not know what particularly will happen.
Focusing only on financial situation due CFTC recent report shows very important issue – Open Interest has shown solid plunge down that means contraction of position on gold market. Simultaneously Net long position also has shown solid drop. Combining these two moments we can come to conclusion that traders close long positions and it means that they do not believe much in soon growth on gold market. Hence we have to be extra careful with any bullish technical picture that could appear on gold market on daily and higher time frames.
SPDR fund storage was flat on current week at 795 tonnes, but in general has decreased for 5 tonnes in August and returned to level of July. Still we have to acknowledge that this is not big volatility for the fund.
Thus, CFTC data shows that in reality there are not many chances on this possible upward bounce. We do not know what will happen in geopolitical tensions because EU still wants to start some more sanctions within next week, while D. Cameron wants to cut Russia off from SWIFT banking system. But we do not know what particularly will happen.
Focusing only on financial situation due CFTC recent report shows very important issue – Open Interest has shown solid plunge down that means contraction of position on gold market. Simultaneously Net long position also has shown solid drop. Combining these two moments we can come to conclusion that traders close long positions and it means that they do not believe much in soon growth on gold market. Hence we have to be extra careful with any bullish technical picture that could appear on gold market on daily and higher time frames.
SPDR fund storage was flat on current week at 795 tonnes, but in general has decreased for 5 tonnes in August and returned to level of July. Still we have to acknowledge that this is not big volatility for the fund.
CFTC
data currently very is important. Most recent data shows solid increase
in net long position as well as jump in open interest. Of cause, we do
not know, may be this was just due fake information on Russian military
forces destruction or this is just single episode - anyway we need to
get some graduality in this tendency. But even this single moment shows
that new money comes on market on previous week and this is also support
factor for our medium term bullish analysis.
Monthly
On recent week market has closed almost at the same price as week before
and thus previous week has limited impact on monthly chart.
As we’ve mentioned previously price should pass solid distance to change situation drastically. it could change only if market will move above 1400 area. Recent rally that has started in July seems exhausted and looses pace fast. Even coming shift in seasonal trend does not fascinate traders much. Physical demand stands weak, dollar strong, inflation weak and talks around rate hiking also does not add optimism to gold.
Since currently August mostly is an inside month for July our former analysis is still working. Although investors have not got hawkish hints from Fed and recent NFP data was slightly lower than analysts poll, major factors are still valid - good economy data, that right now is confirmed by US companies earning reports, weak physical demand – all these moments prevent gold appreciation. Recent comments from spot gold traders and CFTC data put more questions rather then answers on degree of support gold by seasonal trend and geopolitical tensions. Technically gold still stands at very important level that at least theoretically could keep chances on upward rebound. If price will fail here – we probably will start to talk about bear trend again. Tendency could take shape of butterfly as I’ve drawn on the chart, especially because it agrees with bearish grabber target.
It is interesting that during recent rally market was not able to re-test Yearly Pivot and later has vanished our bullish weekly grabbers. This moments make difficult to count on upward reversal. Also we suspect that we could get bearish dynamic pressure here. As you can see trend has turned bullish, but gold does not show any upward action. Splash in July has faded fast. Mostly this pattern will depend on action in September-October. Thus, any solid plunge down here and taking 1240 lows will confirm it. In this case butterfly will become a reality. Finally, overall action since the beginning of the year mostly bearish. Take a look – in the beginning of the year market has tested YPP and failed, then continued move down. During recent attempt to move higher – has not even reached YPP again.
That’s being said, situation on the monthly chart does not suggest yet taking long-term positions on gold. Still, fundamental picture is moderately bearish in long-term. Possible sanctions from EU and US could hurt their own economies as well, especially EU. Many analysts already have started to talk about it. It means that economies will start to loose upside momentum and inflation will remain anemic. In such situations investors mostly invest in interest-bear assets, such as bonds. Approximately the same comments we saw for recent 1-2 months from physical gold traders.
As we’ve mentioned previously price should pass solid distance to change situation drastically. it could change only if market will move above 1400 area. Recent rally that has started in July seems exhausted and looses pace fast. Even coming shift in seasonal trend does not fascinate traders much. Physical demand stands weak, dollar strong, inflation weak and talks around rate hiking also does not add optimism to gold.
Since currently August mostly is an inside month for July our former analysis is still working. Although investors have not got hawkish hints from Fed and recent NFP data was slightly lower than analysts poll, major factors are still valid - good economy data, that right now is confirmed by US companies earning reports, weak physical demand – all these moments prevent gold appreciation. Recent comments from spot gold traders and CFTC data put more questions rather then answers on degree of support gold by seasonal trend and geopolitical tensions. Technically gold still stands at very important level that at least theoretically could keep chances on upward rebound. If price will fail here – we probably will start to talk about bear trend again. Tendency could take shape of butterfly as I’ve drawn on the chart, especially because it agrees with bearish grabber target.
It is interesting that during recent rally market was not able to re-test Yearly Pivot and later has vanished our bullish weekly grabbers. This moments make difficult to count on upward reversal. Also we suspect that we could get bearish dynamic pressure here. As you can see trend has turned bullish, but gold does not show any upward action. Splash in July has faded fast. Mostly this pattern will depend on action in September-October. Thus, any solid plunge down here and taking 1240 lows will confirm it. In this case butterfly will become a reality. Finally, overall action since the beginning of the year mostly bearish. Take a look – in the beginning of the year market has tested YPP and failed, then continued move down. During recent attempt to move higher – has not even reached YPP again.
That’s being said, situation on the monthly chart does not suggest yet taking long-term positions on gold. Still, fundamental picture is moderately bearish in long-term. Possible sanctions from EU and US could hurt their own economies as well, especially EU. Many analysts already have started to talk about it. It means that economies will start to loose upside momentum and inflation will remain anemic. In such situations investors mostly invest in interest-bear assets, such as bonds. Approximately the same comments we saw for recent 1-2 months from physical gold traders.
Weekly
Recent week was inside one and does not care a lot of information.
Although theoretical chances on upward action still exist as we’ve said
this above and I even put this butterfly on chart, but, to be honest,
guys, recent action brings more and more bearish signs.
Let’s follow through recent action:
Upward move from 1240 to 1340 was really nice. This has let reasons to speak about possible break on gold market. At the same time as we’ve mentioned many times – growth mostly was based on geopolitical reasons and had no support from real purchases.
When retracement has started and market has formed three in row bullish grabbers - that was normal - reasonable retracement out from 1333 Fib resistance. Bu later as you can see situation drastically has changed. Bullish trend, price above MPP and three in a row bullish grabbers has shifted to bearish trend, price has closed below MPP and grabbers were vanished.
On passed week, although it was rather small – price again has closed below MPP, CFTC data declares massive closing of longs and bounce up from 1270 mostly reminds some fake rather than real bullish challenge.
Gathering all this stuff together we come to conclusion that market has small chances to hold above 1270 and we should be ready for action to 1240 lows.
On previous week we mostly have spoken on 1270 level as important. Recent action and market mechanics significantly diminished importance of this level. Recent price behavior points on inability of the market jump out from this support.
For weekly chart crucial level will be 1240. Breaking through it will lead to solid consequences, such as – moving below MPS1, erasing of butterfly and solid confirmation of possible downward AB=CD pattern and in perspective monthly butterfly.
Following strictly to DiNapoli method we should search possibility to take short position, because we do not have bullish directional patterns here and trend as on monthly as on weekly stands bearish.
Let’s follow through recent action:
Upward move from 1240 to 1340 was really nice. This has let reasons to speak about possible break on gold market. At the same time as we’ve mentioned many times – growth mostly was based on geopolitical reasons and had no support from real purchases.
When retracement has started and market has formed three in row bullish grabbers - that was normal - reasonable retracement out from 1333 Fib resistance. Bu later as you can see situation drastically has changed. Bullish trend, price above MPP and three in a row bullish grabbers has shifted to bearish trend, price has closed below MPP and grabbers were vanished.
On passed week, although it was rather small – price again has closed below MPP, CFTC data declares massive closing of longs and bounce up from 1270 mostly reminds some fake rather than real bullish challenge.
Gathering all this stuff together we come to conclusion that market has small chances to hold above 1270 and we should be ready for action to 1240 lows.
On previous week we mostly have spoken on 1270 level as important. Recent action and market mechanics significantly diminished importance of this level. Recent price behavior points on inability of the market jump out from this support.
For weekly chart crucial level will be 1240. Breaking through it will lead to solid consequences, such as – moving below MPS1, erasing of butterfly and solid confirmation of possible downward AB=CD pattern and in perspective monthly butterfly.
Following strictly to DiNapoli method we should search possibility to take short position, because we do not have bullish directional patterns here and trend as on monthly as on weekly stands bearish.
Daily
Daily trend holds bearish. Here we also can see how heavy market was
with its attempts to bounce from 1270 Fib support level. Recent action
looks more like bearish flag than upward reversal action.
Meantime here we need to recall our Friday’s conversation. In daily update we said – watch for possible grabber. It could give final confirmation of gold’s inability to hold on 1270 and will open road to downward action. This is our pattern and it has been confirmed. Now we have daily bearish grabber. It minimum target 1273 lows, invalidation point – top of grabber ~1291.50
Meantime here we need to recall our Friday’s conversation. In daily update we said – watch for possible grabber. It could give final confirmation of gold’s inability to hold on 1270 and will open road to downward action. This is our pattern and it has been confirmed. Now we have daily bearish grabber. It minimum target 1273 lows, invalidation point – top of grabber ~1291.50
4-hour
Trend here is bearish as well. Here is our flag pattern. Since market
has formed butterfly inside the flag and even completed AB=CD – this
also could be treated as “222” Sell pattern here. Market should open
somewhere around WPP on next week. Market action itself does not remind
thrusting impluse action. It mostly looks like retracement. Based on
daily grabber – we’re mostly interested in recent swing down as body of
the grabber.
1-hour
But as you will see on hourly chart here is one trick exists. Pay
attention that new untouched September monthly pivot stands slightly
above of grabber’s swing. We know that any market gravitates to pivots
and tries to test them within a period.
Second moment here – couple of small bullish grabbers that suggest taking out of 1291 tops, i.e. grabbers top. Combining these moments points on situation when market could form some AB=CD up, deep retracement that will lead price to MPP. This is the risk for the grabber. It would be nice if price will erase hourly grabbers and market will continue move down right from current levels...
Second moment here – couple of small bullish grabbers that suggest taking out of 1291 tops, i.e. grabbers top. Combining these moments points on situation when market could form some AB=CD up, deep retracement that will lead price to MPP. This is the risk for the grabber. It would be nice if price will erase hourly grabbers and market will continue move down right from current levels...
Conclusion:
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Situation on gold market remains sophisticated. Due bearish moments, such as bullish USD sentiment, lack of physical demand, gold has re-established recently downward action. Recent action shows more and more bearish
signs as well as fundamental data and overall market sentiment. Only
geopolitical events could bring some surprise on market. If gold will
fail to hold above 1270, then we will start to speak about 1240 levels
probably.
Right now we’ve got bearish daily pattern that could become a trigger for 1240 action and we will try to work with it in short-term perspective.
Right now we’ve got bearish daily pattern that could become a trigger for 1240 action and we will try to work with it in short-term perspective.
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Automatically trigger market or pending orders, close some or all trades!
Alerts via SMS, email, pop-up, sound, or even broadcast on Twitter!
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This advanced trade execution and analysis tool allows for quick, precision trading. A one-click trade manager with a plethora of built-in functions.
Trade professionally, quickly and never miss that trade opportunity again!
Quick opening of market, pending and OCO orders
Close trades on an individual, selected, or all-trades basis
Create templates for frequently-used or complex order preferences
Quick modification of S/L, T/P and trailing stops
Trade & risk calculators and analysis functions
Alarms with triggered actions
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Ever wanted to edit the market watch panel in MT4? Well, now you can completely customise it with full control over symbol watch-lists and order activity all from one convenient window.
Name and save preferred symbols in convenient groups in order preference
View graphic market overviews for each symbol covering the last 5 days, 24 hours and 60 minutes
Trade directly from the market manager!
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An easy-to-use matrix grid for all your symbols. See at a glance correlation scores and the strength of these patterns. No need for separate spreadsheet tools!
Select correlation time period ranging from 1 hour to 1 week
Choose different correlation displays, range and sizing
Pick your symbols and products from the Forex, Commodities and Indices market
CORRELATION TRADER:
Want to see correlation patterns over time and need something more than just the quick scores? The Correlation Trader allows you to easily compare market charts and directly trade from the tool.
Select your markets and timescales to compare with key figures such as net profits for each symbol
Open and close orders, place S/L and T/P in both hedging/non-hedging mode directly from the charts
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See the general trading sentiment moods and directions of all your symbols quickly right in your MT4.
Shows current sentiment, historic sentiment plotted against price, and also any open positions in the selected symbol
Configurable views of market and historic sentiment
Open and close orders, place S/L and T/P in both hedging/non hedging mode directly within the tool
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The Session Map gives the trader a visual market overview through the world’s key markets and time-zones.
Displays world’s main markets with a time-line reflecting trader’s local time
Markers for future calendar events impact colour-coded
Price movements information for each completed or current market session
Account information including floating P/L and margin usage
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Samer Al Reifae
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https://www.facebook.com/LORDOFTRUTH
https://www.facebook.com/FollowTheRaw
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vantagefx/
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com/
_Trade with Winners:
Australian financial service providers, Vantage FX,
have received a multitude of awards over the years including those from IB Times,
Deal Makers, The World Finance Foreign Exchange Awards, Smart Investor and many more.
_Vantage FX have:
Award-winning Execution Speeds
Competitive spreads from 0.0 pips
24/5 Premium Customer Support
_Trade with Choice:
Take your pick. Choose from -->
32 Forex currency pairs
Major indices including SPI200, S&P500, DJ30
Commodities – gold, silver and crude oil
Binary Options – click here to read more about this exciting, new way to trade
_Trade with flexibility:
Choose your leverage amount ranging from 1:1 to 500:1
Choose your lot size - micro, mini or standard lots
Choose your account type – Standard or Pro, Individual or Joint
_Trade Your Way:
Choose the trading solution that matches your trading style:
The popular MetaTrader 4 (MT4)
MT4 for Mac – Exclusive to Vantage FX in Australia
MetaTrader 5
WebTrader
Mobile trading apps for iPhone, iPad and Android
Social trading via FX Copy
_Trade Securely and with Transparency:
No Dealing Desk Execution. No Requotes
100% Straight Through Processing
ASIC Regulated Standards
Funds Secure in Segregated Client Accounts at NAB
_Trade Wisely:
Daily market analysis from our key expert writer and currency strategist, Greg McKenna
Daily Forex Currency Highlights reports
Learn, follow and copy leading successful traders on FX Copy
Free Autochartist tools for live Vantage FX account holders
Free webinars and access to webinar archives
Other educational resources including infographics, glossary and guides
Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com
https://www.facebook.com/LORDOFTRUTH
https://www.facebook.com/FollowTheRaw
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vantagefx/
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com/
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YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED.
Do your own due diligence.
No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader.
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend.
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