Wednesday, September 24, 2014

Gold Trend Sept 26, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral/bearish– The failure on gold’s part to close above the moving averages on a monthly basis (March, April, May, July, August) has left the downside open to lower Price potential.
Intermediate Term ~ Bearish– Need a close back above 1243 for neutral.
Short Term ~ Bearish-Gold cycles due to turn this week.

Initial Resistance 1227-1233 2nd tier 1243-1248
Initial Support 1215-1222 2nd tier 1202-1209


Last update listed resistance at 1222-1232 and the high was 1224.
 Support was listed 1212-1215 and 2nd tier at 1202-1209 the low was 1207.

Stocks Slump Most In 2 Months, Bonds & Bullion Safe-Haven Bid

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2014
US equities suffered their biggest drop in 2 months today, with the S&P 500 closing a glaring 30-point divergence with high-yield credit markets which also sold off dramatically. The S&P 500 broke (and closed) below its 50DMA (as did the Nasdaq, Dow Industrials, and Transports). Russell 2000 dropped to beyond 4-month lows (-4.4% in 2014). Early USD strength gave way as stocks started to leak lower and closed unchanged (+0.5% on the week) led by JPY and EUR strength. Treasury yields plunged 4-6bps on the day (led by the long-end) with 10Y testing the critical 2.50% handle once again. VIX broke above 16, its 4th biggest rise of the year. Gold rose as stocks lost ground but silver, oil and copper slipped lower. HY Credit spreads closed at 8 month wides. Investors also piled into safe-haven short-squeeze 'camera-on-a-stick'. Stocks closed not "off the lows."

Why Blackrock (And Every Other Bondholder) Is Freaking Out

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 09/25/2014
Just last week, we explained why Blackrock - the largest asset manager in the world - is gravely concerned about the 'broken' corporate bond market. Simply put, thanks to The Fed's continued presence in the Treasury market has left the corporate bond market a liquidity-starved ticking time-bomb if faith in the stability of defaults ever falters (with firm balance sheets at record high leverage) and "selling" begins. The current level of liquid assets as a proportion of total HY assets is about as low as it has been tracking data back around 25 years. In other words, the massive (and likely levered) positions The Fed has forced the world to take on by its repression face a dramatic liquidity risk cost if they are ever to 'realize' any gains from the Fed's handouts (by actually selling). That's what every bond manager 'knows'...

Germany's Ukip threatens to paralyze euro zone rescue efforts

The stunning rise of Germany’s anti-euro party threatens to paralyze efforts to hold the euro zone together and may undermine any quantitative easing by the European Central Bank, Standard & Poor’s has warned.
Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has swept through Germany like a tornado, winning 12.6pc of the vote in Brandenburg and 10.6pc in Thuringia a week ago. The party has broken into three regional assemblies, after gaining its first platform in Strasbourg with seven euro-MPs.
The rating agency said AfD’s sudden surge has become a credit headache for the whole euro zone, forcing Chancellor Angela Merkel to take a tougher line in European politics and risking an entirely new phase of the crisis. “Until recently, no openly Eurosceptic party in Germany has been able to galvanize opponents of European 'bail-outs’. But this comfortable position now appears to have come to an end,” it said.

Hourly Gold Chart


The main channel is the big black dotted lines. Inside that channel we have smaller resistance lines that need to be overcome to favor the trend turning back up on the short to intermediate term. An intermediate turn would lead to the upper black dotted channel line. The others are the short term points that must be overcome if we are to complete the intermediate turn higher.

We’ve got to get back above that red channel line & the black channel line to overcome first resistance (1227-1233). Additional resistance is now 1247-1257. The trend remains down but a turn up is due now in short term cycles (Sept 24 – plus or minus 72 hours). We have to get back above 1222 on a closing basis at a MINIMUM. As you can see this week has been dominated by the trades at 1222 and where the control boyz are trying to keep the market under. The green 200 hour moving average has now arrived at 1222 also. Odds favor gold is on a bounce higher with a 1227-1232 target.

gold hourly price chart with support and resistance lines
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