Wednesday, October 15, 2014

Gold Trend Oct 16, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral/Bullish next resistance 1265-1272.
Short Term ~ Bullish next resistance 1256 / 1260.

Initial Resistance 1247-1257 2nd tier 1265-1272
Initial Support 1229-1233 2nd tier 1211-1218

Tuesday’s update listed resistance at 1238-1244 and the high was 1250
Support was listed at 1222-1229 and the low was 1222

 Gold Overview

The most important question of the day is whether this is a change in behavior for gold or is it just a bounce that is going to get rubbed out?

The reason we show this chart is the CRB and gold pretty much follow each other and while we eventually are going to need to see the CRB join in with gold and turn up, this will not give us a short term view. While it’s rare that gold can rally without the CRB, it certainly can begin its run up or its sell off before the CRB turns and vice-versa.
As far as an Elliot Wave count, the best count below still shows one more wave to the downside. Could the final leg down be miscounted and the bottom is in? That’s always a possibility. But the best count still has the one more leg down. I look at Elliot patterns but I don’t use them as bible because the waves are hard to fully discern. Only with history do they show best.

 

Hourly Gold Chart
Today we touched the weekly reversal point of 1222 exactly and price took off from there. Resistance is either right here at 1243-1248 or odds favor we move towards 1260. Support is at 1220-1231. The short term trend remains up.
gold hourly price chart
What Next?
We had favored 1211-1218 as a pullback but got only as low as 1222 on Wednesday. Then we vaulted to 1250. We did not get a close above 1243 but odds favor we’re heading towards 1260.

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