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Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Gold Trend, October 15, 2014


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Long Term ~ Bearish- Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Neutral– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral but at 1st resistance / next resistance 1255-1265.
Short Term ~ Bullish but at resistance 1240-1243 / next resistance 1255 / 1265.

Initial Resistance 1238-1244 2nd tier 1256-1265
Initial Support 1222-1229 2nd tier 1211-1218

Gold Overview
So far the gold bounce has been strong but interestingly it is the weakest when compared to platinum, palladium and silver. Silver bottomed one day earlier than the rest of the metals.
In gold it is looking like either 1240-1243 or 1256 to 1260 will be the target for this bounce from the lows established last Monday. The most likely peak this week is Wednesday at one of the two mentioned price areas.
A pullback to the 1218 area would be a 38% retrace if gold holds resistance at 1240 and 1211 would be a 50% retrace. Those are the most conservative points for those looking for short term trade on the long side.
Gold was pretty much in the same price range as Monday reaching a high of 1238.
Right now there should be strong resistance at 1240-1243 and odds favor a pullback to either 1211 or 1218 should develop from there. The other point we need to watch is if gold closes above 1243, then the odds shift that we are moving to the 1260 area (give or take a few dollars). As noted a pullback to 1211 to 1218 could set up a move to that 1260 area as we near the 23rd of October (plus or minus 72 hours). The next chart (cycles/daily) however shows we may be gathering support at a channel line near 1225-1228.

Gold chart from 2014 price high
What Next?
We’ve had a bounce at the same spot as the two 2013 lows. Odds don’t favor it holding on the longer term but a hard bounce off an oversold condition is taking place.  The difficulty is how big this bounce is going to be?
Gold moved to short term bullish last Thursday when it closed above 1213. For now a bottom and a bounce has occurred. Odds favor it continues into Oct 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
There should be a peak this week at the 1240-1243 area and a pullback to 1211-1218. If we hold there then the potential for gold to move to the 1255-1265 area will come into play going into October 23rd (plus or minus 72 hours).
There is one more potential for this week. The daily chart shows a support line that gold held at on Tuesday. If gold can’t move lower than this then the 1255-1265 area will become the target before a meaningful pullback.
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