Tuesday, October 28, 2014

Gold Trend Oct 29, 2014

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral-resistance met at 1256 target (1252-1262) Odds favor a pullback is in play. GLD is the only holdout where it is above the averages.
Short Term ~ Bearish -But odds favor short term peaks this week with pullback into 1st week of November. Pullback may have already begun. Can’t rule one final spring higher but odds are we turn down from there or already have into Nov 7th.

Initial Resistance 1235-1245 2nd tier 1249-1254
Initial Support 1218-1226 2nd tier 1202-1211

The last update listed 1235-1245 as resistance and the high was 1236. 
Support was 1218-1226 and the low was 1222.

There has hardly been any action this week as gold is in a quandary as to just what it’s next move should be. But the FOMC meeting results on Wednesday should be the end of the trendless price. Price will most likely spike on both sides and then odds favor we end up lower as we move towards November 7th. We won’t rule out a pop, but odds favor it doesn’t last.

In the absence of a major event we would anticipate that the Fed will go ahead and end QE and will also talk in hushed words about the timing of an interest rate increase. Historic Short Squeeze, Biggest In 3 Years, Sends Small-Caps Soaring; Dow Tops 17,000
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2014

In a strangely familiar case of deja vu all over again, stocks surged (alone in the cross-asset class world of economic reality) on the day before an FOMC statement. The Russell 2000 has had its best 10-day run in 3 years, best day of the year, and managed to scramble back to its 100- & 200-day moving-average. Dow 17,000 was another key technical level that was achieved. S&P 500 was levitated on volume around 40% below average into the green for October. VIX was banged under 15 and tracked stocks. Away from the equity-vol complex, asset-classes were unimpressed - HY credit, bonds, JPY, and the USD all diverged from stocks. USD weakened slightly, and commodities all gained on the day. TSY yields were up 2-3bps and HY closed practically unchanged. "Most shorted" stocks rose almost 3% - the biggest squeeze since Dec 2011 - smashing the Russell 2000 higher.

Forget "Free Trade" - Focus On Capital Flows

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2014

In a world dominated by mobile capital, mobile capital is the comparative advantage. Mobile capital can borrow billions of dollars (or equivalent) in one nation at low rates of interest and then use that money to outbid domestic capital for assets in another nation with few sources of credit. Mobile capital can overwhelm the local political system, buying favors and cutting deals, all with cash borrowed at near-zero interest rates. Mobile capital can buy up and exploit resources and cheap labor until the resource is depleted or competition cuts profit margins. At that point, mobile capital closes the factories, fires the employees and moves on.

US Homeownership Rate Drops To 1983 Levels

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2014

The last time US homeownership declined down to 64.4% (which the Census Bureau just reported is what US homeownership declined to from 64.7% in Q2), was back in the fourth quarter of 1983.

Here Is The Reason For The Surge In Consumer Confidence

Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2014

Last month's sudden plunge (and biggest miss since Jan 2012) in Conference Board consumer confidence merely enabled an even bigger bounce this month. Consumer confidence surged to 94.5, its highest since October 2007, beating by the most since April 2013 (amid Ebola outbreaks). While the current situation was relatively flat, the surge in the headline data was purely due to a huge spike in future expectations from 83.7 to 95.0 - the highest since Feb 2011. Oddly, fewer people are likely to buy a car, major appliance, or house in the next 6 months but survey respondents expect a surge in incomes?

Core Capex Drops Most Since January; Durable Goods Orders Slide, Miss By Most In 2014
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 10/28/2014

It was just 2 months ago when the one-off Boeing order-related idiocy distorted the entire time series and was thus extrapolated into escape velocity dreams by prognosticators everywhere. Excused by the cognoscenti as a "volatile time series," Durable Goods new orders dropped 1.3% MoM, missing expectations by the most since Dec 2013 and negative for the 2nd month in a row. Lats month's drop was revised lower also. Even more concerning is the 1.7% drop MoM in Core Capex, the biggest miss in over a year and biggest drop since January.

The gold chart

We either turn at 1218-1222 is the next and Monthly Support is 1202-1206, then 1180. The pattern from the lows while certainly not bearish did have a lot of overlap on those dips. It wasn't a pure impulse wave. On this four hour view, nothing has changed yet. We’re still in the downtrend channel from the July high. The numbers derived above are from the red uptrend lines you see on the chart. Expect strong resistance at 1237-1243 on Monday.

gold hourly price chart


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