Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Gold Trend Oct 30, 2014

Long Term ~ Bearish-Need a monthly close above 1800 to confirm the bull market final phase underway. Need a monthly close above 1560 to neutralize the trend.
Medium Term ~ Bearish– Gold needs to close above 1294 on a weekly and monthly basis for bullish outlook.
Intermediate Term ~ Neutral-resistance met at 1256 target (1252-1262) Odds favor a pullback is in play. GLD is the only holdout where it is above the averages.
Short Term ~ Bearish-But odds favor short term peaks this week with pullback into 1st week of November. Pullback may have already begun. Can’t rule one final spring higher but odds are we turn down from there or already have into Nov 7th.

Initial Resistance 1216-1224 2nd tier 1229-1236
Initial Support 1202-1207 2nd tier 1182-1192

The last update listed 1235-1245 as resistance and the high was 1231. 
Support was 1218-1226 and 2nd tier at 1202-1211 the low was 1212.

As we said---the FOMC should be the event for the week. Gold did nothing until the meeting adjourned today and minutes were released. QE ended and gold tanked. However, we think it will be short lived on the DOWNSIDE. IF QE1, 2 and 3 were bearish for gold, how can NO QE be bearish? Or----will it even be WORSE?  
Is gold ever going to stop going down?
We need to see INTEREST RATES START TO RISE again and finally take out the green channel line on the weekly chart we update on the weekly report. Yes, I know it sounds completely opposite of what you’ve been told. But you have to keep in mind that those who are telling you that are the ones who have been bullish all thru this big three year correction. Interest rates ROSE FROM 1968 to 1981.
Do I need to say anything more?
To uncloud any mystery, the truth of the matter is that GOLD GOES UP HARD when interest rates drop sharply into Negative rates as it did from 2001 to 2011. That was the beginning of a new cycle. Now gold is taking its half time break and Once interest rates begin the next leg up higher, at some point, (not at first) gold will re-launch.
But won’t the US dollar go up then too? YES.
The reason gold will still go up is once rates resume the long term uptrend, the global debt crisis will come FULT TILT and the confidence in the entire system will be lost as nations begin to default. As it does, the cascade will be global. “When the wall’s come tumbling down” was a John Mellencamp song, but the lyric is from the bible describing the walls of Jericho.
And while the walls have not yet come tumbling down, we can say with certainty that another biblical phrase is apropos…………..”the handwriting is on the wall.”
The bottom line is gold acts differently with interest rates DEPENDING on where we are on the LONGER TERM CYCLES.  That is where the confusion exists.  They will tank gold with its final wave down if interest rates blow higher, but once that is over with, gold will reverse and will eventually rise dramatically.

Gold chart
We discussed on the intraday update support of 1216-1218 or 1202-1206 and the low since then has been 1207.50, just deep enough to reach the dotted red line support. Look for a bounce back resistance at 1215-1222. Further resistance is now 1229-1237. On the support side that 1202-1206 area is certainly important as it’s really the last of any uptrend lines that have been created since the lows. Note how as soon as the middle red lines and the moving averages gave way, the move was quick to the next set of lines where the downtrend and uptrend lines intersect and if we should fail here, there is a small support point at the 1192-1195. Lastly, if 1180 fails then look for first support at 1156-1172.

For Thursday, the market will likely use 1202-1207 (or 1192-1195) as support and 1215-1222 as resistance.
Gold 4 hour chart

M Samer Al Reifae
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