GOLD PRO Weekly August 04-08, 2014

 Follow The Raw 

Fundamentals

As Reuters reports, Gold rose nearly 1 percent on Friday, snapping a four-day losing streak, as disappointing U.S. non-farm payrolls data dampened talk of an early interest rate rise by the Federal Reserve and increased bullion's appeal as a hedge. The yellow metal, however, posted a 1 percent drop for the week, for a third consecutive loss. On Thursday, gold prices slid to a six-week low on reports showing strong U.S. economic growth and wage increase.
Bullion gained after data showed U.S. job growth slowed in July and the unemployment rate unexpectedly rose, pointing to slack in the labor market that could give the Fed room to keep interest rates low for a while.
The Labor Department said non-farm payrolls increased 209,000 last month, below economists' expectation of a 233,000 job gain. Unemployment rate also rose to 6.2 percent from 6.1 percent as more people entered the labor market.
"People were looking for a big payrolls figure and they didn't get one, so gold gained," said Matthew Turner, metals analyst at Macquarie. Analysts said that gold's gains were capped when the metal failed to breach strong technical  resistance near its 100-day  moving average at $1,298.
Demand for physical gold in Asia failed to pick up in a robust way despite the price drop on Thursday, a dealer in Hong Kong said. Metals consultancy GFMS, a division of Thomson Reuters, warned on Thursday that buying in the main physical gold markets of China and India may not be strong enough to provide a floor for prices this year. Meanwhile, sales of American Eagle gold coins by the U.S. Mint dropped about 40 percent in July from a year earlier.

CFTC data shows solid drop in Open Interest. This indicates massive closing of positions in gold market. As Net position has not changed significantly, this is probably could mean that investors just exit out from a gold and close as longs as shorts.

Monthly

Market has moved lower on previous week, despite on Friday’s attempt to return right back up. Despite solid upward action our bearish grabber is still valid and price should pass solid distance to change situation drastically. Situation could change only if market will move above 1400 area.
In general, all that we’ve said yesterday in EUR research has a relation to gold as well, since this is also dollar-related asset. Althgough investors have not got hawkish hints from Fed and recent NFP data was slightly lower than analysts poll, major factors are still valid - good economy data, that right now is confirmed by US companies earning reports, week physical demand – all these moments prevent gold appreciation. The only factor that could support gold somehow is gepolitical tensions. Previously we have turmoil in Iraq and Ukraine, now Israel and Palestine added.
Grabber pattern is important, but June, and especially July has blocked gradual downward action and white candles break the bearish harmony of recent action. Next upside important level is 1360 – Yearly pivot point. If market will move above it – this could be an indication that gold will continue move higher and this really could become a breaking moment on gold market. Otherwise, grabber will be valid and potentially could lead price back at least to 1180 lows again.
That’s being said, situation on the monthly chart does not suggest yet taking long-term positions on gold, since everything could change on coming week. Still, fundamental picture is moderately bearish in long-term. Possible sanctions from EU and US could hurt their own economies (especially EU). Many analysts already have started to talk about it. It means that economies will start to loose upside pace and inflation will remain anemic. In such situations investors mostly invest in interest-bear assets, such as bonds. Inflation also will be depressed and this is negative sign for gold. 

Weekly

Coming week probably will pass under the sign of bullish weekly grabber that we’ve got on previous tough week. In fact, this pattern could become a clue to medium term perspective of the market. Currently we can point different factors as supportive for upward action as opposite, such as weak demand, but pattern is a pattern. It should either work or fail and until situation with this pattern will not be resolved – we can’t take short position. We would better call for tactical long position and trying to use this grabber. Why this pattern is so important?
As we’ve said previously - in nearest couple of weeks the major question will be whether gold will hold above 1335 or not. And now we stand at hot point. Usually reaching of minor target does not suggest deep retracement. If market is really bearish it should continue move down soon and 1335 level – 5/8 Fib resistance will become the last edge. Retracement above 5/8 level will be too deep for minor bounce after reaching just minor AB=CD target. Spot traders tell that as soon as market reaches this area – buying volume starts to decline significantly and this is also confirmed by recent CFTC data. Although on previous week market has shown not bad bounce down, but it still stands relatively close to 1335-1340 area and everything still could change. Thus, appearing of grabber could significantly impact on situation.
If grabber will work and market will hold above 1335 area, gold could form butterfly “Sell” pattern.

Daily

Here, guys we will not take a look at big swings and large scales, but focus on weekly grabber. It has appeared right at 5/8 Fib support and accompanied by bullish engulfing pattern. Market has not tested yet any monthly pivot levels. If grabber will work, market should take out 1347 top.
Still risks also exist here. The major one is AB=CD down. Despite the fact that CD leg is much flatter, market has not reached as initial AB=CD target as most recent AB=CD. This is warning fact for grabber setup.

4-hour

This chart does not add much to overall picture, but still, here we can see falling wedge pattern accompanied by MACD divergence, that potentially could become bullish in medium-term perspective. Also we have solid 1310 natural area of support/resistance. As we can see, previously market was not able to return back above 1310. So, if it will happen after breakout of the wedge, this could become significant bullish moment.

1-hour

So, taking into consideration risks, that we’ve mentioned above, if you will decide to trade grabber – it is better to take position as close to invalidation point of the grabber as possible. 5/8 Fib support at 1286 may become one of suitable levels to do this. In this case risk still will be not very small, but acceptable ~ 6$ per contract.

Conclusion:

Situation on gold market remains sophisticated. Despite some obviously  bearish moments, such as  bullish USD sentiment, lack of physical demand, gold does not show real downward acceleration and we could see that gold troubles downward action. Definitely that there are some reasons for that and they probably are not limited by just geopolitical tensions.

Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com
http://www.vantagefx.com/products/spreads
https://www.facebook.com/LORDOFTRUTH
https://www.facebook.com/FollowTheRaw
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vantagefx/
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com/

See Why VantageFx ?
_Trade with Winners:
Australian financial service providers, Vantage FX, 
have received a multitude of awards over the years including those from IB Times,
Deal Makers, The World Finance Foreign Exchange Awards, Smart Investor and many more.

_Vantage FX have:
Award-winning Execution Speeds
Competitive spreads from 0.0 pips
24/5 Premium Customer Support

_Trade with Choice:
Take your pick. Choose from -->
32 Forex currency pairs
Major indices including SPI200, S&P500, DJ30
Commodities – gold, silver and crude oil
Binary Options – click here to read more about this exciting, new way to trade

_Trade with flexibility:
Choose your leverage amount ranging from 1:1 to 500:1
Choose your lot size - micro, mini or standard lots
Choose your account type – Standard or Pro, Individual or Joint

_Trade Your Way:
Choose the trading solution that matches your trading style:
The popular MetaTrader 4 (MT4)
MT4 for Mac – Exclusive to Vantage FX in Australia
MetaTrader 5
WebTrader
Mobile trading apps for iPhone, iPad and Android
Social trading via FX Copy

_Trade Securely and with Transparency:
No Dealing Desk Execution. No Requotes
100% Straight Through Processing
ASIC Regulated Standards
Funds Secure in Segregated Client Accounts at NAB

_Trade Wisely:
Daily market analysis from our key expert writer and currency strategist, Greg McKenna
Daily Forex Currency Highlights reports
Learn, follow and copy leading successful traders on FX Copy
Free Autochartist tools for live Vantage FX account holders
Free webinars and access to webinar archives
Other educational resources including infographics, glossary and guides

Samer Al Reifae
support5002@vantagefx.com
https://www.facebook.com/LORDOFTRUTH
https://www.facebook.com/FollowTheRaw
https://www.facebook.com/groups/vantagefx/
http://lordoftruth.blogspot.com/

Get the newly designed trading tools package that can enhance your trading and assist you in achieving your trading goals. Maximize returns and discover new trading opportunities with this wide range of seriously advanced tools.

What is the SmartTrader Tools Package?
Nine unique and powerful trading tools completely designed for MetaTrader 4 (MT4) and available in one user-friendly, easy-to-install package. The package includes:




 Sentiment Trader
At a quick glance, see what the general sentiment is and trade directly within the same window


 Correlation Trader
Determine correlation patterns between pairs in one app with key figures & notes
 
Session Map
A visual world sessions map synced to your local time-zone with calendar events
 
 Trade Terminal
Advanced trade execution and analysis tool for quick, precision trading
 
 Excel RTD Link
The bridging tool for Excel pros allowing you trade from Excel based trading rules
 
 Alarm Manager
Go beyond just receiving alerts. Automatically trigger orders or close trades based on your pre-set rules.


 Correlation Matrix
A flexible and comprehensive matrix grid. See at a glance correlation scores and the strength of patterns.

Market Manager
Customise and create a Market Watch window with different layout options


 Connect Panel
Your personal pick of news feeds and Binary Options trading direct from MT4

 How do you get the package free?
Visit our SmartTrader Tools webpage for more information on each tool and how to register.

Why Vantage FX?
Trade with Winners
Australian financial service providers, Vantage FX, have received a multitude of awards over the years including those from IB Times, Deal Makers, The World Finance Foreign Exchange Awards, Smart Investor and many more.

Vantage FX have
Award-winning Execution Speeds
Competitive spreads from 0.0 pips
24/5 Premium Customer Support

YOU ARE NEVER LEFT ALONE

The Gold Price & Trend Predictions blog made for gold traders to find good news and to provide the traders with daily price predictions and to learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.Just pure learning! It will be of great fun.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you in my blog.

Welcome to my blog where you can learn how to trade the Forex Market for free.The material is all created by myself and not copied from anywhere. There is a lot yet to come since there is a lot that you need to learn, and there is a lot that I need to share with you! So please just be patient – it will be worth it.You can judge by yourself the quality of information that I will be giving you . So just go now and start learning!

Below is a quick guide of how this website is structured, so you can find what you are looking for fast. Remember that I update the pages every day so either check back often.

E Currency Trading

In this section you will find quite a long article of what Forex is all about. If you are a beginner, this is a must read. It explains in detail what is required to start trading, what you should do and not, typical traps to avoid as a beginner and a lot of valuable information which you as a beginner must digest and learn prior opening any Forex account with real money.

E Currency Trading Map

In this section you will find your road map on how to become a real successful trader couple of months as from today.

Forex Trading Tutorials

In this section you will know the  3 major areas – Technical Analysis, Fundamental Analysis and Trading Physcology.

Forex Trading Courses

In this section you will find a gold mine of information about the technicalities of Forex. We will start from the very basics covering all the Forex jargon words which you will be hearing every day and we will be taking you up to the level required to finally learn to trade like a pro – technical analysis, also found in this section.

Forex Scams Tips

In this section you will see the tips that will help you stay away from crap forex products, which unfortunately the Forex market is invaded with.

Forex Scams

This section has a very detailed article on how to avoid being scammed in this ruthless world of Forex. I will explain in detail six tips that you need to look for prior purchasing any products. Even though most of the time you may claim your money back,the time wasted is never returned. You should have used that time to learn how to trade! Read it!

 

YOU SHOULD NOT TAKE ANY MATERIAL posted on this BLOG AS RECOMMENDATIONS 
TO BUY OR SELL GOLD OR ANY OTHER INVESTMENT VEHICLE LISTED. 

 Do your own due diligence. 

No one knows tomorrow's price or circumstance. 
 I intend to portray my thoughts and ideas on the subject which may s be used as a tool for the reader. 
I do not accept responsibility for being incorrect in my speculations on market trend. 

 King Regards